Illustration of CFTC officials discussing prediction market regulations in a conference room.
Illustration of CFTC officials discussing prediction market regulations in a conference room.
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CFTC proposes first rules for prediction markets

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The Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued its initial proposed rulemaking on prediction markets Wednesday. The rules aim to clarify which event contracts qualify as being in the public interest under federal law.

The proposal, released June 10, sets out a three-part test for evaluating contracts. It would require that an event occur, involve one of several restricted categories such as war or assassination, and then receive a formal commission determination. Sports-related contracts receive favorable treatment under the framework. The CFTC indicated that markets settling on final scores, point differentials or team performance would weigh against findings that they are contrary to the public interest. Chairman Mike Selig said the proposal protects market integrity without blocking responsible innovation. The agency is seeking public comments on the measure, which would take effect 60 days after finalization. The CFTC currently operates with only its chairman after the White House left four commissioner seats vacant.

What people are saying

Initial reactions on X highlight the CFTC's proposed 3-step review process allowing most sports contracts while restricting bets on terrorism, war, and manipulation risks. Industry accounts praised the clarity and federal framework as a positive step for innovation, while critics like Better Markets called it enabling disguised gambling. Skeptical voices, including John Arnold, questioned whether sports betting aligns with commodity market goals but supported bans on high-risk bets like next-play wagers. Neutral summaries from traders and news accounts noted bipartisan support and 45-day comment period.

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Minnesota’s push to curb prediction markets runs into a federal preemption fight

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Minnesota lawmakers have advanced legislation aimed at restricting prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket, setting up a clash with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which argues federal law gives it exclusive authority over many of those products.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has issued a no-action letter providing regulatory relief to prediction market operators. The measure eases compliance with swap data reporting rules for fully collateralized event contracts.

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Venture capital firm a16z has filed an 18-page letter backing the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in its disputes with states over prediction markets. The firm argues that federal law preempts state regulations on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. It claims state crackdowns undermine the CFTC's mandate for impartial market access.

Kalshi has unveiled a new advocacy group called Americans for Fair Markets to influence policymakers on prediction markets. The move comes as the US House Oversight Committee launched an investigation into Kalshi and Polymarket over insider trading concerns.

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The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is developing an innovation exemption to allow limited trading of tokenized securities on a trial basis. The measure aims to test blockchain uses while longer-term rules are prepared.

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