Illustration of CFTC officials discussing prediction market regulations in a conference room.
Illustration of CFTC officials discussing prediction market regulations in a conference room.
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CFTC proposes first rules for prediction markets

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The Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued its initial proposed rulemaking on prediction markets Wednesday. The rules aim to clarify which event contracts qualify as being in the public interest under federal law.

The proposal, released June 10, sets out a three-part test for evaluating contracts. It would require that an event occur, involve one of several restricted categories such as war or assassination, and then receive a formal commission determination. Sports-related contracts receive favorable treatment under the framework. The CFTC indicated that markets settling on final scores, point differentials or team performance would weigh against findings that they are contrary to the public interest. Chairman Mike Selig said the proposal protects market integrity without blocking responsible innovation. The agency is seeking public comments on the measure, which would take effect 60 days after finalization. The CFTC currently operates with only its chairman after the White House left four commissioner seats vacant.

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Initial reactions on X highlight the CFTC's proposed 3-step review process allowing most sports contracts while restricting bets on terrorism, war, and manipulation risks. Industry accounts praised the clarity and federal framework as a positive step for innovation, while critics like Better Markets called it enabling disguised gambling. Skeptical voices, including John Arnold, questioned whether sports betting aligns with commodity market goals but supported bans on high-risk bets like next-play wagers. Neutral summaries from traders and news accounts noted bipartisan support and 45-day comment period.

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Illustration of Minnesota capitol and federal clash over prediction markets
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Upaya Minnesota untuk membatasi pasar prediksi terbentur pertarungan yurisdiksi federal

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Para pembuat undang-undang di Minnesota telah mengajukan legislasi yang bertujuan untuk membatasi pasar prediksi seperti Kalshi dan Polymarket, yang memicu bentrokan dengan Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), yang berpendapat bahwa hukum federal memberikan otoritas eksklusif kepada lembaga tersebut atas banyak produk terkait.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has issued a no-action letter providing regulatory relief to prediction market operators. The measure eases compliance with swap data reporting rules for fully collateralized event contracts.

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Venture capital firm a16z has filed an 18-page letter backing the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in its disputes with states over prediction markets. The firm argues that federal law preempts state regulations on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. It claims state crackdowns undermine the CFTC's mandate for impartial market access.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is developing an innovation exemption to allow limited trading of tokenized securities on a trial basis. The measure aims to test blockchain uses while longer-term rules are prepared.

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SEC Chair Paul Atkins proposed a limited innovation pathway for on-chain trading systems during a May 8 speech. The approach draws from the agency's 1990s handling of electronic markets and aims to provide conditional access before permanent rules are set.

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