Carbon credit-generating companies in Brazil eagerly await the 2026 regulation of the regulated market, which could unlock billions in business by forcing polluters to cut emissions. The voluntary market has existed for 15 years, but the regulated one, set for 2030, will allow up to 25% emission offsets with credits. Key players like Carbonext and Re.green prepare forestry and energy projects for rising demand.
Brazil's carbon market gains momentum with impending regulation
Brazil's carbon credit market is expanding, driven by anticipation of 2026 regulations. One credit equals one ton of carbon absorbed or not emitted, created in 1997 by the Kyoto Protocol and strengthened by the 2015 Paris Agreement. In the country, the most common generation methods are forest conservation (REDD+), restoration of degraded areas, and clean energy projects like solar and wind.
The voluntary market, active for 15 years with growth in the last six, allows companies to buy credits on their own initiative to offset emissions. The regulated market, established by law in 2024 and operational in 2030, will impose limits on polluting sectors, which can acquire quotas or credits to meet targets. In 2026, the Ministry of Finance will set the compensable percentage — between 10% and 25% — and accepted credit types, including international exports.
Companies like Carbonext (with Shell as shareholder), Re.green (from Moreira Salles and Armínio Fraga), Mombak (from Peter Fernandez), Systemica (linked to BTG), and Future Climate (with Luciano Huck) lead the sector. They focus on ensuring their Amazon and Atlantic Forest restoration and conservation projects qualify. "REDD+ is important for the country as a whole," says Janaina Dallan, co-CEO of Carbonext, planning to issue 1.5 to 2 million credits in 2026.
Globally, 300 million credits were generated in 2024, with Brazil accounting for 10-15%. The market moved US$ 500 million in short-term contracts in 2024, estimated at US$ 1.5 billion in 2025. In Brazil, from 2011 to 2025, 88.5 million forest credits generated US$ 588 million. If 20% of emissions can be offset, the World Bank projects R$ 14 billion in purchases by 2040. Prices vary: US$ 1 for clean energy, US$ 5.3 for conservation, and US$ 15.5 for restoration in April 2025, potentially exceeding US$ 30 in long-term contracts with big techs like Microsoft and Google.
"There is certainly potential for the regulated market to impact the sector," says Dan Harburg from Mombak. Despite recent REDD+ frauds reducing demand, methodology adjustments restore confidence. Companies like Re.green and Mombak have already signed long-term contracts, financed by BNDES up to R$ 500 million.
