Democratic candidates have frequently run ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris’ 2024 margins in recent special elections held after President Donald Trump began his second term in January 2025, according to analyses tracking results across states and districts. Republicans and some analysts caution that special elections are often low-turnout contests that do not always predict general-election outcomes.
Analilia Mejía, a progressive organizer, won a special election Thursday in New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District, defeating Republican Joe Hathaway by about 20 percentage points with more than 90% of the vote counted late that night, according to the Associated Press. The district backed Harris by nearly 9 points in 2024, meaning Mejía ran several points ahead of the top of the Democratic ticket there.
Broader tracking of special elections since Trump’s January 2025 inauguration has shown Democrats improving on their 2024 presidential performance in many places, including in some Republican-leaning districts. A Washington Post analysis published in June 2025 found Democrats had made notable gains in special elections after Trump took office, though it also noted that the historical relationship between special elections and November outcomes is imperfect and has exceptions.
Other election trackers have reached similar conclusions while emphasizing uncertainty about how far the pattern will carry into the 2026 midterms. Bolts reported that, in 2025 special elections contested by both major parties, Democrats performed an average of 13 percentage points better than in the 2024 presidential race. Governing, citing recent contests, similarly highlighted unusually large swings in some individual districts but cautioned that special elections can be difficult to generalize from because of candidate effects, local issues and turnout.
Republicans have argued that the results are being overinterpreted, saying special elections can be shaped by motivated partisan bases and atypical electorates. Democratic strategists, meanwhile, have pointed to issues such as affordability and frustration with Washington as factors energizing their voters.
Mejía will fill the seat previously held by Gov. Mikie Sherrill and is expected to face voters again in November for a full two-year term, according to the AP.
