Ebrard expects T-MEC review to conclude on July 1

Mexico's Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard stated that the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (T-MEC) is progressing positively and is expected to conclude around July 1, 2026. During the January 15 morning press conference, Ebrard emphasized the professional dialogue with counterparts and the goal of strengthening the trade deal. He also revealed that Mexico's automotive industry pays an average of less than 13% in tariffs to the United States due to investments in North American components.

On January 15, 2026, during the presidential morning press conference, Marcelo Ebrard, Mexico's Economy Secretary, outlined progress in the review of the T-MEC, the trade agreement governing economic ties between Mexico, the United States, and Canada. "We have a positive and very professional dialogue; we are practically in weekly contact," Ebrard declared regarding conversations with U.S. trade representatives.

Ebrard announced that consultation reports will be delivered before the end of January, aiming for the review to conclude around July 1. "Both countries are about to deliver the report of the consultation we conducted; we are advancing on it. That is what we agreed with the United States and Canada; we are on time and on track," he explained. The main goal is to reduce uncertainty in the treaty's implementation and maximize benefits for the Mexican economy, ensuring the T-MEC continues and strengthens.

In the context of U.S.-imposed tariffs, Ebrard assured that Mexico's automotive industry has adapted production to minimize impacts. Despite an additional 25% tariff, companies pay an average of less than 13% due to discounts for complying with T-MEC origin rules through North American-made components. "Most companies comply with T-MEC origin rules with components manufactured in North America," he noted.

Mexico's automotive exports to the United States in 2025 ended with a smaller-than-expected decline of around 3%. For 2026, no sharp drop is foreseen, as 85% of Mexican exports operate under T-MEC rules. Mexico seeks tariff reductions in the review for vehicles with lower regional content to compete on equal terms with products from Japan, South Korea, or Germany.

These statements come amid tensions, as U.S. President Donald Trump has criticized the T-MEC. During a visit to a Ford factory in Dearborn, Michigan, Trump stated: "It has no real advantage; it's irrelevant. Canada would love it. Canada wants it, they need it." Trump has insisted on concentrating automotive production in the United States, increasing pressure on the negotiations.

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In July 2026, Mexico, the United States, and Canada will begin the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), a pivotal process that could extend the deal for another 16 years or lead to prolonged negotiations. This evaluation occurs amid political tensions, with voices from Washington suggesting the U.S. could thrive without the treaty, and aligns with challenges in Mexico's automotive industry, which is seeing export declines and the influx of Chinese vehicles. Business leaders and experts stress the need for regional integration to sustain competitiveness.

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Mexico's auto industry recorded a decline in production and exports in February 2026, attributed to US-imposed tariffs. According to INEGI data, light vehicle exports fell 4.4 percent, while production dropped 1.8 percent. This downturn highlights the sector's sensitivity to the US market, which absorbs 75.7 percent of exports.

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Despite uncertainty from Donald Trump's trade policies, Mexico emerges as a clear beneficiary in international trade, according to Mauricio Naranjo, CEO of Monex. At the EF Meet Point on Economic Expectations 2026, the expert highlighted increasing trade flows to Mexico, driven by exchanges with the United States. Sectors like automotive, machinery, and electronics show notable dynamism.

 

 

 

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