Ebrard expects T-MEC review to conclude on July 1

Mexico's Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard stated that the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (T-MEC) is progressing positively and is expected to conclude around July 1, 2026. During the January 15 morning press conference, Ebrard emphasized the professional dialogue with counterparts and the goal of strengthening the trade deal. He also revealed that Mexico's automotive industry pays an average of less than 13% in tariffs to the United States due to investments in North American components.

On January 15, 2026, during the presidential morning press conference, Marcelo Ebrard, Mexico's Economy Secretary, outlined progress in the review of the T-MEC, the trade agreement governing economic ties between Mexico, the United States, and Canada. "We have a positive and very professional dialogue; we are practically in weekly contact," Ebrard declared regarding conversations with U.S. trade representatives.

Ebrard announced that consultation reports will be delivered before the end of January, aiming for the review to conclude around July 1. "Both countries are about to deliver the report of the consultation we conducted; we are advancing on it. That is what we agreed with the United States and Canada; we are on time and on track," he explained. The main goal is to reduce uncertainty in the treaty's implementation and maximize benefits for the Mexican economy, ensuring the T-MEC continues and strengthens.

In the context of U.S.-imposed tariffs, Ebrard assured that Mexico's automotive industry has adapted production to minimize impacts. Despite an additional 25% tariff, companies pay an average of less than 13% due to discounts for complying with T-MEC origin rules through North American-made components. "Most companies comply with T-MEC origin rules with components manufactured in North America," he noted.

Mexico's automotive exports to the United States in 2025 ended with a smaller-than-expected decline of around 3%. For 2026, no sharp drop is foreseen, as 85% of Mexican exports operate under T-MEC rules. Mexico seeks tariff reductions in the review for vehicles with lower regional content to compete on equal terms with products from Japan, South Korea, or Germany.

These statements come amid tensions, as U.S. President Donald Trump has criticized the T-MEC. During a visit to a Ford factory in Dearborn, Michigan, Trump stated: "It has no real advantage; it's irrelevant. Canada would love it. Canada wants it, they need it." Trump has insisted on concentrating automotive production in the United States, increasing pressure on the negotiations.

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Experts warn of challenges in the 2026 T-MEC review

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The 2026 review of the Mexico, United States, and Canada Agreement (T-MEC) is shaping up as a complex process fraught with uncertainty, according to experts. The event will define commercial certainty for North America, with risks of U.S. protectionism and potential structural changes. Mexico faces challenges in sectors like energy, labor, and migration.

In July 2026, Mexico, the United States, and Canada will begin the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), a pivotal process that could extend the deal for another 16 years or lead to prolonged negotiations. This evaluation occurs amid political tensions, with voices from Washington suggesting the U.S. could thrive without the treaty, and aligns with challenges in Mexico's automotive industry, which is seeing export declines and the influx of Chinese vehicles. Business leaders and experts stress the need for regional integration to sustain competitiveness.

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Mexico's Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard urged closing the window of uncertainty over the T-MEC as soon as possible and at the lowest cost, ahead of its 2026 review. At a national meeting, he highlighted the country's favorable trade position and the treaty's survival. He recalled early-year tensions from Donald Trump's tariff threats.

Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum, U.S. President Donald Trump, and Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney will hold brief meetings during the FIFA 2026 World Cup draw in Washington this Friday. While speculation surrounds potential economic talks on tariffs and the T-MEC review, the Canadian government confirms the focus will be solely on football. Business leaders from all three countries urge strengthening the trade agreement amid expiration threats.

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Following Senate approval of tariffs on over 1,400 Asian products amid USMCA review tensions, Mexico published a decree on December 29, 2025, in the Official Gazette detailing 5% to 50% duties on imports from non-free trade agreement countries like China, effective January 1, 2026. Affecting goods such as clothing, toys, shampoo, and auto parts, the measures aim to protect domestic industry and generate 70 billion pesos in revenue with minimal 0.2% inflation impact.

Following Congress's approval of tariffs on over 1,000 Asian imports, President Claudia Sheinbaum announced ongoing dialogues with China, India, and South Korea to evaluate effects and seek cooperative solutions, aiming to safeguard Mexico's industry without sparking tensions. The measures, set for January 2026, target products harming local producers and jobs.

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Delegations from Brazil and the United States met in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on Monday, October 27, 2025, to begin negotiations on the 50% tariffs imposed by the US on Brazilian products. The meeting follows the encounter between Presidents Lula and Donald Trump the previous day on the sidelines of the Asean summit. The parties agreed on a meeting schedule and plan a Brazilian visit to Washington in early November.

 

 

 

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