Mexico benefits from Trump-induced trade uncertainty

Despite uncertainty from Donald Trump's trade policies, Mexico emerges as a clear beneficiary in international trade, according to Mauricio Naranjo, CEO of Monex. At the EF Meet Point on Economic Expectations 2026, the expert highlighted increasing trade flows to Mexico, driven by exchanges with the United States. Sectors like automotive, machinery, and electronics show notable dynamism.

Mauricio Naranjo, CEO of Monex, stated that Mexico is an evident beneficiary of changes in international trade amid Donald Trump's policies. At the EF Meet Point on Economic Expectations 2026, he noted that, despite tariff tensions, trade flows to Mexico are increasing, particularly with the United States, its main partner in imports and exports.

Naranjo emphasized that North American integration is strengthening. 'International trade, despite everything this year and what we're seeing, is that flows, particularly to Mexico, are increasing,' he detailed. He highlighted dynamic sectors like automotive, including parts, machinery, electronics, and medical devices.

He also pointed to the role of Mexico's young, technically trained university graduates as a key input. The agricultural sector has grown recently, as has the tertiary sector with emerging service industries, all with high potential.

'I think it's something that would have been hard to anticipate when we saw this tariff discussion at the start of the year. Nevertheless, this integration process in the North American bloc continues to strengthen,' he explained. Mexico remains a trade powerhouse, and Monex supports this through digital international payments and efficient trade financing.

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Split-image illustration showing Mexico's booming FDI inflows contrasting with industrial stagnation and GDP decline.
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Mexico's economy shows contrasts with record FDI and stagnation

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Mexico recorded a record foreign direct investment of 40,906 million dollars in the first nine months of 2025, a 14.5% increase from 2024. However, GDP contracted 0.3% in the third quarter and the IGAE fell 0.6% in September, indicating economic stagnation. Analysts warn of fragility in the industrial sector and risks to employment.

Mexico gears up for a pivotal 2026 in its economy, with potential in investment and mergers and acquisitions, but regulatory uncertainty poses risks. While nearshoring provides structural advantages, the local transaction slump contrasts with recovery in the United States. Experts emphasize the need for certainty to draw global capital.

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Alejandro Werner, director of the Georgetown Americas Institute, warned that Mexico will achieve a favorable T-MEC negotiation with the United States, but in a context of institutional weakness due to unilateral US tariff decisions. He recommended that the Mexican government focus its growth strategy on internal reforms such as competition, deregulation, and education. He also projected that inflation will not drop below 4% in the coming years due to wage pressures.

墨西哥批准对无自由贸易协定的亚洲国家产品加征高达50%的关税后,韩国公司在墨西哥的运营引发担忧。这些措施影响机械、汽车零部件和电子元件,占韩国对墨西哥出口的约30%。然而,产业部评估称,由于墨西哥针对中间产品的关税减免计划,影响将有限。

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Following the December 2025 decree imposing 5-50% tariffs on non-FTA imports, Mexico's measures particularly target the automotive sector, hiking duties on light vehicles to 50% and parts up to 50%. While aiming to protect national industry and generate over 70 billion pesos in revenue, the policy draws criticism for slowing Chinese EV tech adoption, though brands remain bullish on Mexico's market thanks to local plants.

墨西哥参议院批准了对来自亚洲国家的1400多种产品征收高达50%关税的立法,主要针对中国进口,以支持国内生产商。总统克劳迪娅·谢因鲍姆为这一决定辩护,称其旨在履行“墨西哥计划”而不损害国家经济。中国北京批评此举损害其利益。

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Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum, U.S. President Donald Trump, and Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney will hold brief meetings during the FIFA 2026 World Cup draw in Washington this Friday. While speculation surrounds potential economic talks on tariffs and the T-MEC review, the Canadian government confirms the focus will be solely on football. Business leaders from all three countries urge strengthening the trade agreement amid expiration threats.

 

 

 

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