Mexico benefits from Trump-induced trade uncertainty

Despite uncertainty from Donald Trump's trade policies, Mexico emerges as a clear beneficiary in international trade, according to Mauricio Naranjo, CEO of Monex. At the EF Meet Point on Economic Expectations 2026, the expert highlighted increasing trade flows to Mexico, driven by exchanges with the United States. Sectors like automotive, machinery, and electronics show notable dynamism.

Mauricio Naranjo, CEO of Monex, stated that Mexico is an evident beneficiary of changes in international trade amid Donald Trump's policies. At the EF Meet Point on Economic Expectations 2026, he noted that, despite tariff tensions, trade flows to Mexico are increasing, particularly with the United States, its main partner in imports and exports.

Naranjo emphasized that North American integration is strengthening. 'International trade, despite everything this year and what we're seeing, is that flows, particularly to Mexico, are increasing,' he detailed. He highlighted dynamic sectors like automotive, including parts, machinery, electronics, and medical devices.

He also pointed to the role of Mexico's young, technically trained university graduates as a key input. The agricultural sector has grown recently, as has the tertiary sector with emerging service industries, all with high potential.

'I think it's something that would have been hard to anticipate when we saw this tariff discussion at the start of the year. Nevertheless, this integration process in the North American bloc continues to strengthen,' he explained. Mexico remains a trade powerhouse, and Monex supports this through digital international payments and efficient trade financing.

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Split-image illustration showing Mexico's booming FDI inflows contrasting with industrial stagnation and GDP decline.
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Mexico's economy shows contrasts with record FDI and stagnation

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Mexico recorded a record foreign direct investment of 40,906 million dollars in the first nine months of 2025, a 14.5% increase from 2024. However, GDP contracted 0.3% in the third quarter and the IGAE fell 0.6% in September, indicating economic stagnation. Analysts warn of fragility in the industrial sector and risks to employment.

Mexico gears up for a pivotal 2026 in its economy, with potential in investment and mergers and acquisitions, but regulatory uncertainty poses risks. While nearshoring provides structural advantages, the local transaction slump contrasts with recovery in the United States. Experts emphasize the need for certainty to draw global capital.

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Alejandro Werner, director of the Georgetown Americas Institute, warned that Mexico will achieve a favorable T-MEC negotiation with the United States, but in a context of institutional weakness due to unilateral US tariff decisions. He recommended that the Mexican government focus its growth strategy on internal reforms such as competition, deregulation, and education. He also projected that inflation will not drop below 4% in the coming years due to wage pressures.

멕시코가 비FTA 국가의 아시아산 제품에 최대 50% 관세 인상을 승인하면서 한국 기업들의 운영에 대한 우려가 커지고 있다. 한국의 멕시코 수출품 중 30%에 해당하는 기계, 자동차 부품, 전자 부품이 영향을 받을 전망이다. 그러나 산업부는 중간재 관세 감면 프로그램으로 인해 영향이 제한적일 것이라고 평가했다.

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Following the December 2025 decree imposing 5-50% tariffs on non-FTA imports, Mexico's measures particularly target the automotive sector, hiking duties on light vehicles to 50% and parts up to 50%. While aiming to protect national industry and generate over 70 billion pesos in revenue, the policy draws criticism for slowing Chinese EV tech adoption, though brands remain bullish on Mexico's market thanks to local plants.

멕시코 상원은 아시아 국가 1,400개 이상 제품에 최대 50% 관세를 부과하는 법안을 승인했으며, 주로 중국 수입품을 대상으로 국내 생산자를 강화하기 위한 조치다. 클라우디아 셰인바움 대통령은 이 조치가 '멕시코 플랜'을 지지하며 국가 경제에 해를 끼치지 않는다고 옹호했다. 베이징은 이 관세가 자국 이익에 해롭다고 비판했다.

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Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum, U.S. President Donald Trump, and Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney will hold brief meetings during the FIFA 2026 World Cup draw in Washington this Friday. While speculation surrounds potential economic talks on tariffs and the T-MEC review, the Canadian government confirms the focus will be solely on football. Business leaders from all three countries urge strengthening the trade agreement amid expiration threats.

 

 

 

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