Guangdong cuts 2026 GDP growth target to 4.5%-5%

China's manufacturing powerhouse Guangdong has lowered its 2026 GDP growth target to 4.5%-5% after missing the previous year's goal. Governor Meng Fanli announced this during the opening of the Guangdong provincial people’s congress. The adjustment signals challenges from the property sector drag and global headwinds.

Guangdong province, China's premier manufacturing hub, is recalibrating its economic ambitions. Governor Meng Fanli said on Monday while delivering the annual government work report at the opening of the Guangdong provincial people’s congress that the southern province, bordering Hong Kong, expects its gross domestic product to grow between 4.5 and 5 per cent in 2026.

The move comes after the province fell short of its 5 per cent target last year amid a persistent drag from the property market. Guangdong is home to major troubled developers such as Evergrande, Vanke and Country Garden.

The province’s economy continues to face a mix of long-standing issues and emerging challenges, Meng said in the report. As an industrial behemoth hit by property and global headwinds, Guangdong is shifting focus in a strategic pivot amid national reforms, addressing intensifying external pressures and internal regional imbalances.

This adjustment underscores Guangdong's role in broader national economic strategies, highlighting the need for cautious planning in the face of sector-specific vulnerabilities.

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Premier Li Qiang delivered the government work report to China's National People's Congress on March 5, 2026, setting a 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5% and outlining priorities for the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), including technological innovation, economic security, public well-being, energy production and decarbonisation. The report announced 20 growth targets across economy, technology, healthcare and more, plus 109 major projects in six areas—up from 102 previously—to support doubling 2020 per capita GDP by 2035.

China's government is likely to set a 2026 economic growth target in a range of 4.5% to 5%, according to three briefed sources. If confirmed, this would signal tolerance for some deceleration amid challenges, prioritizing economic rebalancing and stability.

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China's National Bureau of Statistics announced on Monday that the country's gross domestic product grew 5 percent in 2025 to reach 14.02 trillion yuan, meeting the government's target of around 5 percent. Despite a slowdown to a three-year low of 4.5 percent in the fourth quarter, the economy remained steady amid the US trade war.

China's foreign trade rose 18.3 percent year-on-year to 7.73 trillion yuan in the first two months of 2026, economists say this will underpin the country's growth target and provide stability for the global economy. Exports increased 19.2 percent, while imports grew 17.1 percent, reflecting improved global demand and domestic industrial strengths.

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The International Monetary Fund has raised its 2026 growth projection for China to 4.5 percent, up 0.3 percentage points from its October forecast, due to eased trade tensions and sustained domestic policy support. China's 2025 growth forecast was also revised upward by 0.2 percentage points to 5 percent. The changes reflect stimulus measures and additional policy bank lending for investment.

China's trade performance exceeded expectations at the beginning of 2026, with exports rising sharply. The growth rate reached 21.8% year-on-year for January and February, compared to 5.5% in the previous year. This surge was propelled by key sectors amid global demand.

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One morning in December, Zhang Li arrived at Everwin Toys in Dongguan to find a notice on the factory gates announcing production halt due to over 40% revenue decline from shrinking toy demand and global economic changes. Like her 2,000 colleagues, she had worked there for more than 15 years since her early 20s. “Now I’m in my 40s,” she said. “Where will I find my next job?”

 

 

 

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