Rating agency Moody's maintained Indonesia's sovereign credit rating at Baa2 but adjusted the outlook from stable to negative on February 5, 2026. This came alongside the release of 2025 economic growth data at 5.11 percent, higher than the previous year. Authorities including OJK and Bank Indonesia affirmed that it does not signal weakening economic fundamentals.
On February 5, 2026, Moody's Investors Service announced it was maintaining Indonesia's sovereign credit rating at Baa2 but changing the outlook from stable to negative. The primary reason cited was a decline in policy predictability that risks weakening governance, though Moody's acknowledged strong economic resilience supported by stable growth, natural resources, and favorable demographics.
The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) reported Indonesia's economy grew 5.11 percent year-on-year (yoy) for full-year 2025, up from 5.03 percent in 2024, with Q4 reaching 5.39 percent yoy—the highest since the COVID-19 pandemic. Key contributors included manufacturing, trade, agriculture, and information-communication from the production side; and household consumption and gross fixed capital formation from the expenditure side. This exceeded consensus estimates of 5.1 percent, though it fell short of the APBN target of 5.2 percent.
The Financial Services Authority (OJK), via Acting Chair of the Board of Commissioners Friderica Widyasari Dewi, stated the rating affirmation underscores solid economic fundamentals, bolstered by a disciplined macroeconomic policy framework and resilient financial sector. "All agendas are directed to maintain financial system stability, support financing for government priority programs, and strengthen market and investor confidence," Friderica said.
Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo added that the outlook adjustment does not reflect fundamental weakening, with inflation at 2.92 percent within target and 2026 growth projected at 4.9-5.7 percent. Coordinating Minister for the Economy Airlangga Hartarto attributed the negative outlook to global misunderstanding of Danantara's role as a sovereign wealth fund, pledging improved communication.
Market reactions emerged on February 6, 2026: The Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) opened down around 2.3 percent to 7,915-7,920 levels, following global and Asian bourse weakness. The rupiah weakened to Rp16,865 per US dollar, down 0.14 percent. Nonetheless, Moody's projected fiscal deficits to remain below 3 percent of GDP and debt ratios low compared to peers, with the main challenge being to bolster the revenue base.
