Following the Central Bank's December 2025 announcement of its 2026 economic plan, the new exchange rate flotation scheme—adjusting dollar bands by past inflation—took effect on January 2, 2026. The BCRA aims to accumulate reserves amid market anticipation of quote shifts, while economist Martín Redrado warns the system is transitory without clearer policy definitions.
Argentina's new exchange scheme, announced on December 15, 2025, as part of the BCRA's 2026 strategy, began operating on January 2, 2026. It updates dollar bands based on inflation from two months prior, per INDEC data, replacing the prior fixed 1% monthly adjustment. For instance, November's 2.5% inflation could lift the band ceiling from $1,526 to around $1,564 by late January, according to private estimates.
The current floor stands at $916 and ceiling at $1,526, with BCRA interventions limited to 5% of traded volume if breached. Recently, the BCRA has sold dollars, underscoring market pressures, noted former BCRA president Martín Redrado in a radio Rivadavia interview. He described the scheme as 'by definition, a transitory system' and urged definitions in exchange, financial, and monetary policies for investment and production stability.
On January 1, with markets closed, the crypto dollar was at $1,536 (highest), followed by blue ($1,530 sell), CCL ($1,520.47), and MEP ($1,480.74). The wholesale dollar ended 2025 at $1,455. Redrado highlighted a widening gap—the official dollar up 5 cents, blue up 40—while positives include wheat harvest liquidation yielding nearly $800 million surplus and strong soy prospects in April.
Challenges persist, including a $4.2 billion January bond payment. Redrado cautioned that inflation-driven bands fuel expectations, advocating tax reforms to boost wages and consumption: 'The best non-inflationary way to improve purchasing power is to lower work taxes.'
