Tesla is set to report its third-quarter 2025 earnings on October 22 after market close, following record vehicle deliveries and energy storage deployments. Analysts expect revenue around $26.4 billion, up 5% year-over-year, but earnings per share of about $0.55, down 24% from last year. Investors will focus on updates regarding AI initiatives, robotaxis, and future vehicle demand amid expiring tax credits.
Tesla's Q3 2025 results come after the company disclosed record vehicle deliveries of 497,099 units, surpassing analyst projections by about 54,000 vehicles. This figure, up from 462,890 in the year-ago quarter, was boosted by buyers rushing purchases before the $7,500 federal EV tax credit expired at the end of September. Additionally, Tesla deployed a record 12.5 gigawatt-hours of energy storage, driven by demand from AI data centers, up from 6.9 GWh last year.
Wall Street consensus points to revenue of $26.45 billion, a 5.1% increase from Q3 2024, while Estimize predicts $26.266 billion. Earnings per share are forecasted at $0.53 to $0.55, reflecting a 24-26% decline from $0.72 last year, due to price cuts amid competition and reduced regulatory credit revenue. Automotive gross margins are expected at 16.5-17%, down from peaks in 2021, as the company ramps production of lower-priced Model 3 and Y variants.
The earnings call, following the release, will include a conference call with management and questions from retail shareholders via the Say platform. Key topics include robotaxi rollout progress, with launches in Austin and the Bay Area under supervision; full self-driving timelines, where CEO Elon Musk has repeatedly promised unsupervised operation by year-end; and the Optimus humanoid robot, previously targeted for 5,000 units in 2025 but facing delays. Analysts like Wedbush's Dan Ives emphasize AI as central, stating, 'The most important chapter in Tesla's growth story is now beginning with the AI era.' Morningstar's Dave Sekera warns the stock, up 11% year-to-date to around $444, trades at a 70% premium, overvaluing AI growth.
Guidance on Q4 deliveries will be crucial, as the tax credit expiration may slow demand. Options pricing implies a 7-7.5% stock swing post-earnings, higher than the historical average. Tesla's shareholder meeting in early November adds pressure, with votes on Musk's compensation package amid concerns over his AI focus.
