The dollar nears $3800 after Trump closes door to Iran negotiations

The US dollar in Colombia reached 3807.40 pesos on Friday, driven by international and local tensions. US President Donald Trump's statements ruling out negotiations with Iran, combined with upcoming elections in the country, fueled volatility in the currency. It closed at 3795.68 pesos, up from the previous representative market rate.

The dollar's performance this week was marked by significant volatility, influenced by international and national factors. Globally, tensions in the Middle East escalated after US President Donald Trump stated he has no intention of negotiating with Iran. This sparked risk aversion among investors, bolstering the dollar as a safe-haven asset.

Locally, the approach of Saturday's elections and an Invamer poll showing Iván Cepeda in the lead added to market caution. The currency hit a low of 3770 pesos and a high of 3807.40 pesos during the session, with 2115 transactions totaling 1444 million dollars. It closed at 3795.68 pesos, up 27.74 pesos from the previous Representative Market Rate of 3767.94 pesos. This level had not been seen since December 2025, when it reached 3810 pesos before declining.

Analysts emphasized the impact of these developments. "The dollar remains strong globally despite benefits to some countries from rising oil prices. This risk aversion is reflected in a strong dollar," explained Catalina Tobón, strategy manager at Skandia Colombia. She added that uncertainty over Iran, with restrictions on crude exports and production halts in the Middle East, has driven up oil prices.

Paula Chaves, markets analyst at GH Trading, noted: "Part of the rebound responds to portfolio rebalancing and increased demand for dollar hedging, which is common as markets approach scenarios of political uncertainty." Katherine Ortiz, head of equity at Davivienda Corredores, stated: "The main reasons for the dollar's wide volatility stem from local and international factors. Internationally, the global dollar has strengthened as investors seek this currency for refuge and liquidity."

These shifts illustrate how external events, such as conflicts and Federal Reserve policies, alongside internal dynamics, influence Colombia's exchange rate.

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Trading floor scene illustrating Colombian peso's 1.36% drop amid regional currency gains and January volatility.
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Colombian peso decouples from peers amid January volatility

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Continuing its strong revaluation trend earlier in January—where it led emerging currencies with gains over 4% through January 22—the Colombian peso depreciated 1.36% on January 28, 2026, diverging from appreciating regional peers like the Brazilian real and Mexican peso. Despite the daily drop, it holds a 3.5% monthly gain amid global volatility and commodity rebounds.

The Colombian peso became the emerging currency that revalued the most against the dollar following legislative election results, driven by expectations of a market-friendly political balance. The US dollar closed at $3.745, down $50.55 from the TRM. Analysts attribute this movement to investors' positive surprise at the success of the Consulta por Colombia and a divided Congress.

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On March 3, 2026, the US dollar in Colombia exceeded $3,800, marking a $28 rise in one day and the highest levels of the year so far. Analysts link this increase to geopolitical tensions and local elections, but do not anticipate it reaching $4,000. Experts suggest gradual purchases amid potential temporary volatility.

The Mexican peso ended the session up 0.15% against the dollar at 17.76 pesos per unit, per Banco de México data. Traders assessed the feasibility of a ceasefire in Iran ahead of Banxico's monetary policy decision on Thursday. Analysts forecast the currency to hold in a 17.65-17.85 pesos per dollar range.

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The Mexican peso ended Monday's session with gains due to the dollar's weakening, driven by tensions from Donald Trump's government against the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. The exchange rate stood at 17.9188 pesos per dollar, a 0.36% advance. Analysts attribute this movement to concerns over the Fed's independence.

The dollar blue closed lower on Friday, January 9, 2026, reaching 1,505 pesos for selling, while the official dollar at Banco Nación stood at 1,490 pesos for selling. Other financial quotes like MEP, CCL, and crypto showed slight variations. In Córdoba, official rates matched the national ones.

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Despite the Candlemas Day holiday, the Mexican peso gained ground against the dollar in electronic trading, appreciating by 0.32 percent. The exchange rate stood at 17.40 units per dollar, two cents lower than the Bank of Mexico's close from the previous Friday. Analysts warn of a potential correction due to the peso's overbought status in January.

 

 

 

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