The dollar nears $3800 after Trump closes door to Iran negotiations

The US dollar in Colombia reached 3807.40 pesos on Friday, driven by international and local tensions. US President Donald Trump's statements ruling out negotiations with Iran, combined with upcoming elections in the country, fueled volatility in the currency. It closed at 3795.68 pesos, up from the previous representative market rate.

The dollar's performance this week was marked by significant volatility, influenced by international and national factors. Globally, tensions in the Middle East escalated after US President Donald Trump stated he has no intention of negotiating with Iran. This sparked risk aversion among investors, bolstering the dollar as a safe-haven asset.

Locally, the approach of Saturday's elections and an Invamer poll showing Iván Cepeda in the lead added to market caution. The currency hit a low of 3770 pesos and a high of 3807.40 pesos during the session, with 2115 transactions totaling 1444 million dollars. It closed at 3795.68 pesos, up 27.74 pesos from the previous Representative Market Rate of 3767.94 pesos. This level had not been seen since December 2025, when it reached 3810 pesos before declining.

Analysts emphasized the impact of these developments. "The dollar remains strong globally despite benefits to some countries from rising oil prices. This risk aversion is reflected in a strong dollar," explained Catalina Tobón, strategy manager at Skandia Colombia. She added that uncertainty over Iran, with restrictions on crude exports and production halts in the Middle East, has driven up oil prices.

Paula Chaves, markets analyst at GH Trading, noted: "Part of the rebound responds to portfolio rebalancing and increased demand for dollar hedging, which is common as markets approach scenarios of political uncertainty." Katherine Ortiz, head of equity at Davivienda Corredores, stated: "The main reasons for the dollar's wide volatility stem from local and international factors. Internationally, the global dollar has strengthened as investors seek this currency for refuge and liquidity."

These shifts illustrate how external events, such as conflicts and Federal Reserve policies, alongside internal dynamics, influence Colombia's exchange rate.

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Continuing its strong revaluation trend earlier in January—where it led emerging currencies with gains over 4% through January 22—the Colombian peso depreciated 1.36% on January 28, 2026, diverging from appreciating regional peers like the Brazilian real and Mexican peso. Despite the daily drop, it holds a 3.5% monthly gain amid global volatility and commodity rebounds.

The Colombian peso became the emerging currency that revalued the most against the dollar following legislative election results, driven by expectations of a market-friendly political balance. The US dollar closed at $3.745, down $50.55 from the TRM. Analysts attribute this movement to investors' positive surprise at the success of the Consulta por Colombia and a divided Congress.

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On March 3, 2026, the US dollar in Colombia exceeded $3,800, marking a $28 rise in one day and the highest levels of the year so far. Analysts link this increase to geopolitical tensions and local elections, but do not anticipate it reaching $4,000. Experts suggest gradual purchases amid potential temporary volatility.

Il peso messicano ha terminato la sessione in rialzo dello 0,15% rispetto al dollaro a 17,76 pesos per unità, secondo i dati del Banco de México. Gli operatori hanno valutato la fattibilità di un cessate il fuoco in Iran prima della decisione di politica monetaria di Banxico di giovedì. Gli analisti prevedono che la valuta si manterrà in un intervallo compreso tra 17,65 e 17,85 pesos per dollaro.

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Il peso messicano ha chiuso la sessione di lunedì in rialzo grazie alla debolezza del dollaro, determinata dalle tensioni del governo di Donald Trump contro la Federal Reserve per abbassare i tassi di interesse. Il tasso di cambio si è attestato a 17,9188 pesos per dollaro, con un progresso dello 0,36%. Gli analisti attribuiscono questo movimento alle preoccupazioni sull'indipendenza della Fed.

Il dollaro blue ha chiuso in calo venerdì 9 gennaio 2026, raggiungendo 1.505 pesos per la vendita, mentre il dollaro ufficiale alla Banco Nación si attestava a 1.490 pesos per la vendita. Altre quotazioni finanziarie come MEP, CCL e crypto hanno mostrato lievi variazioni. A Córdoba, i tassi ufficiali coincidevano con quelli nazionali.

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Nonostante la festività del Giorno della Candelora, il peso messicano ha guadagnato terreno contro il dollaro nel trading elettronico, apprezzandosi dello 0,32%. Il tasso di cambio si è fissato a 17,40 unità per dollaro, due centesimi in meno rispetto alla chiusura della Banca del Messico del venerdì precedente. Gli analisti avvertono di una possibile correzione dovuta alla condizione di ipercomprato del peso a gennaio.

 

 

 

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