Building on its strong 2025 performance as the fourth strongest emerging currency, the Colombian peso has appreciated 3.8% in the first 14 days of January 2026, leading the pack. It outperforms the Chilean peso (2.8%) and Argentine peso (1%), driven by government external debt issuance and favorable US inflation data.
Continuing its momentum from 2025—when it appreciated 18.3% against the USD amid global dollar weakness—the Colombian peso has strengthened further, gaining 3.8% in early January 2026. This positions it ahead of peers like the Chilean peso (2.8%) and Argentine peso (1%), with advances also in the Brazilian real, Costa Rican colon, and Mexican peso, reflecting capital inflows and positive monetary outlooks.
In contrast, the Paraguayan guaraní fell 9.6%, and the Dominican peso 0.4%. On January 13, the dollar opened at $3,705, dropping to $3,626.55; on January 14, it started at $3,630 (below the TRM of $3,663.24), hitting a low of $3,610 and high of $3,666.5 after 794 trades totaling US$677.1 million.
Key drivers include the government's record US$5 billion external debt issuance (largest in history, with 3-, 5-, and 7-year maturities), converting dollars to pesos and increasing supply, as noted by Mauricio Acevedo of Corficolombiana. Globally, US inflation at 2.7% (core below expectations) supports Federal Reserve rate cut forecasts by mid-2026. Colombia's minimum wage hike may fuel local inflation, potentially leading to steady or higher rates, attracting investment amid US political uncertainty, per Gregorio Gandini.
US retail sales rose in November on cars and holidays, with slight wholesale inflation uptick unlikely to sway Fed policy, according to Clark Bellin of Bellwether Wealth. Acevedo highlights the absence of negative news as ideal for the peso's trend.
