Analysts issue mixed ratings after Tesla's strong Q3 deliveries
Tesla reported 497,099 vehicle deliveries in the third quarter, exceeding expectations by nearly 30% from the previous quarter and up 7% year over year. While some analysts praised the results as a turning point, others cautioned that the surge was likely driven by buyers rushing ahead of the U.S. electric vehicle tax credit's expiration. The company's shares dipped slightly following the announcement.
Tesla's third-quarter deliveries of 497,099 vehicles marked the best performance in the company's history, breaking a trend of negative revisions after a sluggish first half of the year. The figures represented a 7% increase from the same period last year and a nearly 30% jump sequentially. However, the boost came amid the impending end of the $7,500 U.S. EV tax credit on September 30, prompting speculation of a temporary rush of purchases.
Three firms reiterated Sell ratings post-report. UBS analyst Joseph Spak maintained a Sell with a $215 price target, noting Tesla's European sales were down about 50% and warning that the tax credit's end could hurt demand. 'Investors might take profits now that the support from those credits is gone,' UBS added. J.P. Morgan's Ryan Brinkman raised his price target to $150 but kept an Underweight rating, calling the 12% beat on forecasts a 'temporary pull-forward.' He projected earnings per share at $0.59, down 18% year over year. Freedom Capital Markets' Dmitriy Pozdnyakov set a $338 target, stating U.S. growth may slow while international sales remain soft, with upcoming quarters testing the impact of short-term demand.
In contrast, Canaccord Genuity's George Gianarikas viewed the results optimistically. '3Q25 was ‘a banger.’ The negative revision trend has been broken,' he said, reiterating a Buy rating with a $490 target implying 14% upside. He highlighted potential growth from new vehicles in 2026 and a 30.2% sequential increase in energy storage deployment to 12.5 GWh, driven by demand from hyperscalers seeking grid-independent options. Gianarikas acknowledged a possible one-time surge but emphasized momentum in robotaxis and humanoid robotics.
Wall Street's consensus remains Hold, with 15 Buys, 12 Holds, and 9 Sells. The average price target of around $347 suggests about 19% downside from the $429.83 close, where shares fell 1.42% on Friday.