Argentina's country risk, measured by JP Morgan's EMBIG index, closed at 601 basis points on November 19, 2025, after dipping below 600 during the day. This 2.12% drop is attributed to dollar inflows from corporate debt issuances and Buenos Aires bond placements. The indicator signals renewed investor optimism amid exchange rate stability.
Argentina's country risk saw a significant decline on November 19, 2025, closing at 601 basis points, down 13 units from the previous close of 614. JP Morgan's EMBIGD index hit an intraday low of 597 points, nearing its lowest level since the start of the year. This 2.12% negative variation occurred amid strong dollar inflows to the local market, driven by issuances of Negotiable Obligations (ON) from companies such as YPF, TGS, Pampa, Edenor, Pluspetrol, and Tecpetrol, and Buenos Aires' placement of USD 600 million at an 8.1% annual rate.
Over the past week, the indicator showed a mainly downward trend with minor interruptions. On November 17, it closed at 618 points, with a slight 0.2% gain following a trade agreement with the United States. On November 18, it fell to 614 points despite weakness on Wall Street. Dollar-denominated sovereign bonds, like Bonares and Globales, rose an average of 0.6%, with rates around 8% annually.
The dollar remained stable within exchange bands, supported by confidence in the peso and a primary fiscal surplus of 0.1% of GDP in October, marking 22 consecutive months of positive balance. President Javier Milei's legislative victory and the U.S. agreement bolstered expectations of governability and a potential return to international markets.
However, analysts like Roberto Castillo caution: “The one who gets into Argentina crosses a swamp with crocodiles,” noting that the value remains high and sustainability hinges on macroeconomic consolidation. Meanwhile, the S&P Merval index fell 2.2% to 2,869,724 points, with declines in ADRs such as Grupo Galicia (-32.6%).
The country risk measures the premium demanded by the market on Argentine sovereign bonds over U.S. Treasury bonds, affecting financing costs for the state and private companies.