Brazil's trade deficit with the United States jumped from US$ 283 million in 2024 to US$ 7.5 billion in 2025, multiplying by 26 following tariff measures imposed by President Donald Trump. This marks the 17th consecutive year the goods flow favors Americans, with Brazilian exports dropping 6.6% and imports rising 11%. Brazilian officials attribute part of the impact to tariffs, but also to internal economic factors and reduced demand for oil.
The trade imbalance between Brazil and the United States worsened significantly in 2025, driven by Donald Trump's protectionist policies. Brazilian exports to the US totaled US$ 37 billion, a 6.6% drop from 2024, while imports of American products reached US$ 45 billion, up 11%.
Herlon Brandão, director of the Department of Foreign Trade Statistics and Studies at Mdic, highlighted the tariffs' effect: "It did influence. We observed an increase in exports to the United States until mid-year, then there were monthly drops." However, he pointed to other factors, such as Brazil's growing economy boosting demand for US machines and equipment, and the expansion of US oil production, reducing the need for Brazilian barrel imports. "The drop is not entirely affected by the tariffs because we saw reductions [in sales] in various products not impacted by the tariff hike; for example, oil. But others fell; for example, wood and machines," he explained.
The tariff measures sequence began in February 2025 with 25% rates on steel and aluminum imports. In July, Trump sent a letter to Lula announcing a 50% tariff on all Brazilian exports from August 1, citing an alleged "witch hunt" against Jair Bolsonaro and unsustainable deficits. The decree, however, included about 700 exceptions, exempting 43% of export value, such as oil derivatives, pig iron, civil aviation, and orange juice, but not meat, coffee, and fish.
Subsequent advances included removing the 10% tariff on cellulose in September and 40% on over 200 agricultural items like meat and coffee in November.
Vice President Geraldo Alckmin emphasized ongoing negotiations: "The work continues and will be accelerated." He noted reductions in rates, from 37% of products taxed at 50% to 22%, and highlighted the good relationship between Lula and Trump, with potential for partnerships in rare earths, big techs, and data centers, leveraging Brazil's abundant renewable energy for artificial intelligence. Alckmin also commented on Nicolás Maduro's arrest by the Trump administration, expressing hopes for Venezuela's recovery without directly linking it to bilateral trade.
