Shares of Brazilian oil companies, including Petrobras, fell on Monday (5) at the stock exchange, bucking the rise in international oil prices following the US attack on Venezuela over the weekend.
Petrobras and other Brazilian oil firms listed on B3 posted block declines in the January 5, 2026 trading session, while the Ibovespa rose 0.82%. Petrobras ordinary shares fell 1.67%, and preferred shares 1.66%, leading to a R$6.8 billion drop in market value. Prio declined 1.46%, Brava Energia 5.75%, while PetroReconcavo gained 0.63%.
Abroad, the picture differed: US shares of ExxonMobil rose 2.21% and Chevron 5.10%. Brent crude climbed 1.66% to $61.76 per barrel in London, and WTI 1.74% to $58.32. Chevron continues operations in Venezuela partnering with PDVSA, while ExxonMobil seeks $984.5 million in compensation for 2007 expropriations, a claim upheld by a US court in September 2025.
Analysts link the Brazilian shares' drop to fears of heightened Latin American competition and potential Venezuelan supply surge, which could pressure oil prices. Ian Lopes of Valor Investimentos noted that "US companies gaining space here, as seems to be the US plan," might boost rivalry. Venezuela's output has plunged over decades from mismanagement and lack of foreign investment after 2000s nationalizations.
RB Investimentos' Gustavo Cruz warned of squeezed profits from lower prices, echoing 2025 trends, with Venezuela accounting for under 2% of global exports currently. Aegis Hedging analysts pointed to the "unknown" in Venezuelan oil flows. An anonymous Petrobras board member suggested a possible investment plan review, to be addressed at the January 16 council meeting. Suno Research's João Daronco sees the market already pricing in impacts, with no sharp short-term shifts.
