Remittances to Mexico fall 4.6% in 2025 due to deportation fears

Remittances sent to Mexico from the United States dropped 4.6% in 2025, totaling 61,791 million dollars and breaking an 11-year streak of increases. This decline, the sharpest since 2009, is linked to the weakening US labor market and migrants' fear of raids ordered by President Donald Trump. Despite a slight December uptick, six months of the year saw decreases.

The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) reported on February 3, 2026, that remittances to Mexico totaled 61,791 million dollars in 2025, a 4.6% decline from the 2024 record of 64,745 million dollars. This marks the first annual drop since 2013, ending a growth streak that began in March 2020 amid the Covid-19 pandemic.

Gabriela Siller, director of Economic Analysis at Grupo Financiero BASE, stated that 'the drop in remittances in 2025 was due to the deterioration of the US labor market and migrants' fear of going out to work due to the possibility of being deported.' Trump's administration launched aggressive migrant raid campaigns to deport one million undocumented individuals in 2025, instilling fear among compatriots.

In December 2025, remittances rose 1.9% year-over-year to 5,322 million dollars, but the year included six months of declines, with an average of 5,149 million monthly compared to 5,396 million the previous year. The number of operations fell 5.5% to 157 million, though the average remittance increased 1% to 397 dollars. Remittances accounted for 3.4% of Mexico's GDP, the lowest share since 2009.

States hit hardest in purchasing power were Mexico State (-19.52%), Mexico City (-16.50%), and Sinaloa (-15.37%), while Baja California saw a 22.23% growth. Guanajuato, Michoacán, and Jalisco received the largest amounts. Mexico is the world's second-largest remittance recipient after India, per the World Bank.

In June 2025, the US imposed a 1% tax on cash remittances. President Claudia Sheinbaum countered with a reimbursement program and criticized the measure as a violation of the 1994 bilateral treaty against double taxation.

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