Remittances to Mexico fall 4.6% in 2025 due to deportation fears

Remittances sent to Mexico from the United States dropped 4.6% in 2025, totaling 61,791 million dollars and breaking an 11-year streak of increases. This decline, the sharpest since 2009, is linked to the weakening US labor market and migrants' fear of raids ordered by President Donald Trump. Despite a slight December uptick, six months of the year saw decreases.

The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) reported on February 3, 2026, that remittances to Mexico totaled 61,791 million dollars in 2025, a 4.6% decline from the 2024 record of 64,745 million dollars. This marks the first annual drop since 2013, ending a growth streak that began in March 2020 amid the Covid-19 pandemic.

Gabriela Siller, director of Economic Analysis at Grupo Financiero BASE, stated that 'the drop in remittances in 2025 was due to the deterioration of the US labor market and migrants' fear of going out to work due to the possibility of being deported.' Trump's administration launched aggressive migrant raid campaigns to deport one million undocumented individuals in 2025, instilling fear among compatriots.

In December 2025, remittances rose 1.9% year-over-year to 5,322 million dollars, but the year included six months of declines, with an average of 5,149 million monthly compared to 5,396 million the previous year. The number of operations fell 5.5% to 157 million, though the average remittance increased 1% to 397 dollars. Remittances accounted for 3.4% of Mexico's GDP, the lowest share since 2009.

States hit hardest in purchasing power were Mexico State (-19.52%), Mexico City (-16.50%), and Sinaloa (-15.37%), while Baja California saw a 22.23% growth. Guanajuato, Michoacán, and Jalisco received the largest amounts. Mexico is the world's second-largest remittance recipient after India, per the World Bank.

In June 2025, the US imposed a 1% tax on cash remittances. President Claudia Sheinbaum countered with a reimbursement program and criticized the measure as a violation of the 1994 bilateral treaty against double taxation.

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Split-image illustration showing Mexico's booming FDI inflows contrasting with industrial stagnation and GDP decline.
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Mexico's economy shows contrasts with record FDI and stagnation

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Mexico recorded a record foreign direct investment of 40,906 million dollars in the first nine months of 2025, a 14.5% increase from 2024. However, GDP contracted 0.3% in the third quarter and the IGAE fell 0.6% in September, indicating economic stagnation. Analysts warn of fragility in the industrial sector and risks to employment.

The Central Bank of Egypt announced that remittances from Egyptians working abroad reached unprecedented levels of about $33.9 billion in the first 10 months of 2025, compared to around $23.7 billion in the same period last year. On a monthly basis, remittances rose 26.2% year-on-year in October to approximately $3.7 billion.

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The Mexican peso has accumulated a 13.9% appreciation in 2025, its best performance since 1994, driven by dollar weakness and solid local factors. Despite a moderate depreciation on December 29, the exchange rate remains stable amid low trading volume due to year-end holidays. Analysts forecast volatility in 2026 from monetary policies and trade reviews.

The Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) recorded a loss of 320,692 formal jobs in December 2025, the lowest since 2022. Despite this, the year ended with a net creation of 278,697 jobs, at a 1.3% rate. Experts note the figure is less negative than anticipated, though they highlight weaknesses in job generation.

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Mexico's Secretary of Economy, Marcelo Ebrard, announced that the country's investment portfolio has grown to 406.8 billion dollars, a historic record driven by new projects across the 32 states. At the First National Investment Promotion Meeting, businesswoman Altagracia Gómez emphasized the goal of reaching 25% of GDP in investments by 2026, as part of the Plan México.

The Mexican peso ended Monday's session with gains due to the dollar's weakening, driven by tensions from Donald Trump's government against the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. The exchange rate stood at 17.9188 pesos per dollar, a 0.36% advance. Analysts attribute this movement to concerns over the Fed's independence.

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Mexico's informal economy reached its highest contribution to GDP in 2024, accounting for 25.4% of the total, according to preliminary INEGI data. This marks a 3.2 percentage point increase since 2020, underscoring the persistence of labor informality affecting 54.4% of the employed population.

 

 

 

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