Illustration of strengthening Rupiah amid tax revenue optimism, featuring Finance Minister and rising currency charts in Jakarta's financial hub.
Illustration of strengthening Rupiah amid tax revenue optimism, featuring Finance Minister and rising currency charts in Jakarta's financial hub.
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Rupiah strengthens on 2026 tax revenue optimism

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The rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar strengthened in Tuesday morning trading, boosted by Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa's optimism about 2026 tax revenue exceeding targets. January tax realizations surged 30.8 percent year-on-year, while the Consumer Confidence Index rose to its highest level in a year. This comes amid fluctuations in the domestic stock market, which opened slightly weaker.

On Tuesday, February 10, 2026, the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar showed strength in early trading. According to Bank Indonesia's Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) data, the rate stood at Rp16,838 per US dollar on Monday, February 9, up 49 points from Rp16,887 the previous Friday. In the spot market until 09:01 WIB, the rupiah traded at Rp16,796 per US dollar, rising 9 points or 0.05 percent from Rp16,805.

This strengthening aligns with Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa's optimism regarding 2026 tax revenue. He predicts the Rp2,357.7 trillion target in the state budget could be exceeded, despite the low 2025 realization of Rp1,917.6 trillion, resulting in a Rp271.7 trillion shortfall. Thus, the required annual growth is 22.9 percent to chase an additional Rp440.1 trillion.

Economist observer Ibrahim Assuaibi stated, "This is estimated by him despite the low growth base of tax revenue last year, which has also drawn attention from foreign rating agencies." This optimism is supported by January 2026 tax realizations surging 30.8 percent year-on-year.

Additionally, the Consumer Confidence Index (IKK) rose 3.5 points to 127 in January 2026, the highest level since January 2025 (127.2). With a reference of 100, the IKK indicates an optimistic zone that can predict increased household consumption.

Meanwhile, the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) opened slightly weaker at 8,031.58, down 0.29 points or 0.01 percent from the previous close at 8,031.87. Analysts predict a limited correction, influenced by the postponement of the FTSE Russell index review for March 2026, which creates psychological pressure in the market.

Hvad folk siger

Discussions on X primarily from news outlets highlight Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa's optimism for exceeding 2026 tax revenue targets and ambitious tax ratio goals of 11-12%, with efforts like audits and anti-collusion measures; limited user opinions note rupiah's slight strengthening and calls for sustained growth.

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Trading floor in Jakarta celebrates Rupiah strengthening to Rp16,762/USD amid BPS trade surplus data.
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Rupiah strengthens after BPS report on 2025 trade surplus

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The rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar strengthened at the opening of trading on Tuesday morning, February 3, 2026, reaching around Rp16.762 per dollar, up 36 points or 0.21 percent from the previous day. This strengthening was influenced by the release of data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) recording Indonesia's trade surplus for 2025 at US$41.05 billion. Additionally, January 2026 monthly inflation recorded a deflation of 0.15 percent, although annually it reached 3.55 percent.

The rupiah exchange rate weakened toward Rp 17,000 per US dollar on January 21, 2026, driven by global and domestic pressures. Economist Josua Pardede stressed the need for fiscal policy certainty to restore market confidence. Meanwhile, the IHSG opened lower amid rising external risks.

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Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa said Indonesia's rupiah should strengthen due to strong national economic fundamentals. However, the rupiah weakened to Rp16,997 per US dollar on March 16, 2026. He remains confident the IHSG will hit 10,000 by end-2026.

Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa is optimistic that the 2026 state budget deficit can be controlled due to January tax revenue growth of 30.8 percent. This achievement reached Rp116.2 trillion, or 4.9 percent of the budget target. The government's strategy emphasizes economic stimulus over tax rate increases.

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The Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) rose slightly by 2.71 points or 0.03 percent to 8,019.54 in the first trading session on Tuesday, March 3, 2026, halting a correction trend due to Middle East geopolitical tensions. The energy sector led the gains with a 1.46 percent surge, followed by top performers like PTBA and AADI. The rupiah also strengthened marginally to Rp 16,863 per US dollar.

CORE Indonesia projects March 2026 annual inflation at 3.5-3.6 percent, down from February's 4.76 percent. The forecast reflects a low-base effect from electricity tariffs, though Lebaran and non-subsidized fuel prices may push monthly inflation higher. Official BPS data is due on April 1, 2026.

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