UN warns of strong El Niño as Pacific warms

The United Nations World Meteorological Organization has warned of a possibly strong El Niño event that could intensify extreme weather globally.

The warning follows data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration showing warming sea surface temperatures in the Niño region of the Pacific Ocean since January. Anomalies close to 0.5 degrees Centigrade have appeared since June 2026.

WMO official Alvaro Silva said the intensity of El Niño increases the likelihood of extreme weather and climate events worldwide on top of long-term climate change. He urged regions prone to drought, such as South Africa, to act now to secure water supplies.

The WMO and partners predict temperatures in the region will continue rising from July to September, peaking between November 2026 and February 2027. Effects on weather are expected several months after the peak.

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Global weather agencies have declared that El Niño has started in the tropical Pacific. Models indicate a 63 per cent chance it will become a very strong or super El Niño.

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Scientists forecast an 80 percent likelihood that an El Niño will form by September, with most models pointing to a moderate event. Some simulations indicate the possibility of a much stronger episode. Global warming is expected to intensify the effects of any such occurrence.

The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority has issued an alert about a likely moderate to strong El Niño event developing in 2026.

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Ideam raised the probability of El Niño conditions to 82 percent for the May-June-July quarter, with strong or very strong intensity expected.

 

 

 

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