Reports indicate the Trump administration is weighing a naval blockade to halt oil imports to Cuba, prompting strong condemnations from Havana and international allies. Cuban officials have labeled the potential move a brutal act of aggression, while China and Russia voice support for the island nation.
On January 24, 2026, Cuban Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Carlos Fernández de Cossío denounced a 'brutal' US government attempt to prevent fuel from reaching Cuba, describing it as an act of aggression against a state posing no threat to Washington. This follows a Politico report revealing that President Donald Trump is considering imposing a naval blockade to cut off oil supplies to the island as part of a pressure strategy aimed at provoking regime change. There has been no public confirmation or official decision to date.
The Kremlin expressed concern, with presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stating Moscow is closely following reports and underscoring the importance of Cuba’s independence and national interests. China also reaffirmed its support, with Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun declaring that Beijing is 'deeply concerned and strongly condemns' US actions, urging the lifting of the blockade and sanctions, and noting they deprive the Cuban people of their right to development.
Analysts such as Miguel Cossio, director of the Cuban Museum of the Diaspora in Miami, warned that a blockade would force the Cuban government to negotiate, while Andy Gomez noted that any regime change would depend more on internal dynamics. Legally, a naval blockade is only viable in the context of armed conflict under international law, such as the San Remo Manual, and would violate the UN Charter without Security Council authorization, given opposition from Russia and China.
Logistically, the US has the military capacity, but it would require an extensive and costly operation to cover Cuba's 5,700 km coastline and international sea routes. The term 'naval blockade' appears used rhetorically for psychological pressure, potentially leading to selective inspections or secondary sanctions rather than formal military action. Mexico canceled its oil shipments to Cuba as a sovereign decision, according to President Claudia Sheinbaum, not due to US pressure. Trump stated that 'Cuba will be failing pretty soon' without Venezuelan support, cut off after Nicolás Maduro's abduction.
