Hispanic small business owners, who helped drive Donald Trump's 2024 victory, are increasingly dissatisfied with his economic policies and immigration enforcement. A recent survey shows many feel their situations have worsened amid high costs and raids. This shift poses challenges for Republicans ahead of midterms.
In 2024, economic anxiety and immigration concerns propelled President Donald Trump to win 48 percent of Hispanic or Latino voters, the highest for a Republican in at least 50 years. However, those same issues are now eroding support among this key group.
A survey by the U.S. Hispanic Business Council found that 42 percent of Hispanic business owners reported their economic situation worsening, compared to 24 percent who said it was improving. Seventy percent ranked the cost of living as a top-three national issue. Before the 2024 election, nearly two-thirds trusted Trump more than Kamala Harris on the economy, but sentiment has soured due to high prices from tariffs and disruptions from immigration enforcement.
"The broader Hispanic community certainly feels let down," said Javier Palomarez, the council's president and CEO. "It would be different if immigration and the economy had not been principal talking points for [Trump]. On both fronts, we didn’t get what we were going to get."
Examples abound: In South Phoenix, a restaurant closed temporarily after tariffs caused labor shortages and ICE raids deterred customers and workers. Monica Villalobos, president of the Arizona Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, described a sense of betrayal. "Now that we’ve had a taste of [the Trump administration], I think you’re going to see a big shift [in the vote]," she said.
Polls reflect the decline. A November POLITICO Poll showed 48 percent of Hispanics calling the cost of living the worst ever, with 67 percent blaming the president. Pew Research indicated 68 percent feel worse off than a year ago, 65 percent oppose the immigration approach, and 52 percent worry about deportation—up 10 points since March. Trump's net favorability among Hispanics stands at 28 percent, per The Economist/YouGov, down 13 points from last year.
Recent elections signal a swing back to Democrats, such as in Passaic County, New Jersey, and Miami, where a Democratic mayor won after 28 years. Christian Ulvert, a Democratic strategist, noted that Hispanic families are responding through the ballot: "My life is actually worse."
The administration counters that it is addressing inherited inflation. Trump claimed in a Detroit speech, "We have quickly achieved... almost no inflation and super high growth." Yet, business leaders like Massey Villarreal in Houston say macroeconomic gains do not ease daily costs, such as grocery prices.
In Chicago, Sam Sanchez of Third Coast Hospitality called 2025 his toughest year besides COVID, warning of fallout for the 48 percent who backed Trump. Tayde Aburto of the Hispanic Chamber of E-Commerce added, "Small business owners are becoming a swing constituency... because their costs did."
