Despite a 355% gain over the past year, XRP is trading at $2.50 and may be overvalued, according to analysts. The recent surge followed U.S. election results and the dismissal of a long-running SEC lawsuit, but regulatory uncertainties persist. Expectations for broader adoption in global payments remain tempered by market realities.
XRP, the cryptocurrency associated with Ripple, has experienced significant volatility. As of October 24, 2025, it has risen 355% over the previous 52 weeks, largely due to what has been termed the 'Trump bump.' This surge was fueled by optimism that a more crypto-friendly U.S. administration would resolve the ongoing Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lawsuit against Ripple, allowing the RippleNet payment network to expand operations in America.
The SEC lawsuit has indeed been dismissed, removing a major overhang. However, not all anticipated changes have materialized. The Trump administration has yet to establish a comprehensive legal and regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies. While the Genius Act provides some clarity for stablecoins, the broader Clarity Act—intended to define roles for the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in overseeing assets like XRP—is stalled amid a government shutdown.
Additionally, XRP was excluded from the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, dashing hopes that the U.S. government would become a significant buyer. This omission contrasts with initial post-election projections that could have positioned XRP for large-scale government transactions.
Looking ahead, XRP's potential lies in the $195 trillion global border-crossing payments market recorded in 2024. RippleNet could capture a portion, but the cryptocurrency's extremely low transaction fees—fractions of a penny even for large transfers—limit direct profitability links to transaction volumes. The payments sector is already fragmented, with competitors including the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), which is adopting digital technologies, alongside credit cards, digital wallets, Wise, and PayPal.
Ripple remains a private company, keeping its financials confidential. This lack of transparency hinders investor assessments of RippleNet's success and profitability, contributing to valuation concerns. Analysts suggest that at $2.50 per coin, XRP may be due for a correction, advising caution against buying at current levels.