The French government threatened on Friday to dissolve the National Assembly if censured, preparing early legislative elections alongside March municipal polls. This response to censure motions from RN and LFI on the Mercosur deal draws criticism from figures like François Hollande and Michel Barnier. As the 2026 budget nears debate, calls to use article 49.3 grow to avert deadlock.
On January 9, 2026, the European Union greenlit the free-trade deal with Mercosur, despite France's opposition voiced through a vote against in the National Assembly. In response, the Rassemblement National (RN) and La France Insoumise (LFI) filed censure motions against Sébastien Lecornu's government, to be debated mid-next week.
On Friday, to ward off a fall, the executive brandished the threat of fresh dissolution, tasking Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez with preparing legislative elections on March 15 and 22, coinciding with municipal polls. This tactic aims to spur a rally among moderate parties like the Parti Socialiste (PS) and Les Républicains (LR), potential kingmakers in the Assembly.
François Hollande, PS deputy for Corrèze and former president, deemed the threat on Sunday to have «no sense» during the «Questions politiques» show on France Inter/Franceinfo/Le Monde. «We must not talk of dissolution (...). Mayors preparing municipal elections wonder: 'but won't legislative elections interfere with municipal ones?'», he stated. He will not back the motions, calling them «inappropriate» since «France voted against this deal» and debate is underway in the European Parliament. For the 2026 budget, up for hemicycle debate from Tuesday after rejection in commission Saturday, Hollande urges article 49.3: «Enough letting time pass because the French (...) await a framework» for investment or spending. He opposes article 47 ordinances, favoring «the only suitable one today».
Olivier Faure, PS first secretary, confirmed his deputies will not vote the motions, criticizing Emmanuel Macron's shifts but noting that «in the end, he says no». He refuses to demand 49.3, deeming it «absurd» post-retirement reform, but the PS will assess content at a Bercy meeting Monday, seeking an 8-billion-euro corporate surtax, ecological efforts, and boosted activity bonuses.
Michel Barnier, LR deputy and ex-Prime Minister, views the threat as a «hostage-taking» of municipals, a «moment of democracy» locally. «We are not afraid of voters», he said on RTL-Le Figaro-M6-Public Sénat, stating the responsible right will back no censure. He endorses 49.3 if needed, slamming PS concessions like suspending retirement reform: «The PS dominated the discussion, got what it wanted, and we conceded too much.»
Former Economy Minister Éric Lombard calls for a «rapid change of method», without ruling out 49.3, concerned for the next 18 months amid no coalition in the Fifth Republic. These budget tensions, targeting a deficit under 5% in 2026 versus 5.4% in 2025, highlight a «moment of truth» for politicians.
