Somalia joins Sudan-Egypt-Saudi Arabia-Turkey axis against Emirati influence

Ambassadors from Sudan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey arrived in Somalia’s newly created Northeast State to attend its leadership inauguration, signaling Mogadishu’s entry into the axis to counter Emirati influence in the Red Sea and Horn of Africa. Somalia annulled all agreements with the UAE following ministerial talks with Sudan, which assured backing from Riyadh, Cairo, and Ankara. The alliance focuses on sovereignty issues and Red Sea security.

On January 17, ambassadors from Sudan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey attended the inauguration of the leadership of Somalia’s newly created Northeast State in Las Anod, its capital, alongside senior officials from the Somali federal government. Somali and Sudanese diplomats described the joint visit as a display of Mogadishu’s entry into the Sudan-Egypt-Saudi Arabia-Turkey axis, aimed at curbing Emirati influence in the Red Sea and Horn of Africa.

The move followed Somalia’s federal government decision to annul all agreements with the UAE on January 13, as announced by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in a national address. Mohamud stated: “The UAE did not conduct itself as a single, independent state in its dealing with Somalia. On numerous occasions, we urged them to treat Somalia as one country and to cease the covert approach of engaging through multiple channels.” A source at Somalia’s Foreign Ministry noted that the growing alignment with Saudi Arabia, Sudan, and Egypt offers a “good chance” to counter UAE influence, especially after Israel’s recognition of Somaliland in late December.

The visit came after ministerial-level talks between Sudan and Somalia in January, during which Khartoum assured Mogadishu of support from Riyadh, Cairo, and Ankara if it severed ties with the UAE. A former senior Sudanese intelligence source described the Sudanese-Saudi-Egyptian rapprochement as a structural shift in Sudan’s regional posture, extending to issues like Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and Emirati policies in the Horn of Africa.

Somalia’s joining is seen as a natural extension of the axis’s efforts to prevent state fragmentation and counter external interventions, emphasizing Somali sovereign unity. However, the annulment does not affect UAE relations with Somaliland, where Abu Dhabi operates a base in Bosaso linked to arms transfers to the Rapid Support Forces.

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