Analysts call Trump's tariff probe on China a bluff

The United States has launched Section 301 investigations into alleged unfair trade practices by China and other economies, potentially allowing higher tariffs to be reimposed, but analysts describe it as a 'bluff' to gain leverage for President Trump's expected trip to China. Beijing, accustomed to such tactics, is unlikely to be fazed.

The United States has decided to launch Section 301 investigations into alleged unfair trade practices by China and several other economies, a move that could pave the way for Washington to reimpose higher tariffs. Analysts say this is a 'bluff' by US President Donald Trump to create perceived leverage ahead of his expected trip to China, aimed at appealing to his domestic base before the midterm elections.

Fu Weigang, president of the Shanghai Institute of Finance and Law, a private think tank, said: 'Trump’s move before his China trip is calculated to appeal to his domestic base ahead of the midterm elections with the message: “I’m going to Beijing with investigations and leverage and won’t compromise.”' He added: 'China knows this is a result of US domestic politics, so it’s no surprise. Chinese exporters have been on the receiving end of such tactics for years, but they have become more resilient.'

The investigations target China, Japan, the European Union, India, and Mexico. Beijing has grown accustomed to Trump's 'art of the deal' tactics, and analysts believe the threat is unlikely to faze it. Trump's visit will be the first by a US president to China in nearly a decade, featuring a summit with President Xi Jinping, with focuses on a potential trade truce and investment revival.

External factors like the situation in Iran are influencing security arrangements, with the trip expected to be confined to Beijing. Reports indicate that the US and China are discussing ways to revive investment, including structured joint ventures and licensing deals, as Beijing seeks protections and Washington aims for better market access.

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Symbolic news image of U.S. trade investigations into 16 economies, featuring Capitol, national flags, factories, and workers.
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U.S. Launches Section 301 Investigations into 16 Economies for Unfair Trade Practices Linked to Excess Capacity

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The Trump administration has initiated Section 301 investigations into South Korea, China, Japan, the European Union, and 13 other economies over unfair practices tied to structural excess capacity in manufacturing. The probes follow a Supreme Court ruling invalidating prior tariffs and aim to establish permanent measures to protect U.S. jobs. South Korea vows active consultations to safeguard its interests.

A US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs may weaken President Trump's negotiating position with Chinese President Xi Jinping ahead of a Beijing summit. However, this does not automatically give China an edge. Experts note that Beijing must offer concessions for Trump to claim a success in his transactional style.

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Several anonymous sources say Chinese government departments are researching potential demands from the US leader and formulating possible concessions for a Trump-Xi summit. China has not formally announced Trump's visit, but its foreign ministry stated the two countries have been in communication about the trip.

US President Donald Trump has announced tariffs of up to 25% on countries maintaining commercial ties with Iran, in response to the violent suppression of protests there. The decision puts Brazil on alert, risking exports of meats and other agribusiness products. Experts warn of potential trade tensions and significant economic impacts.

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France urges a united European Union response and Germany plans talks with allies after US President Donald Trump raised his global tariff to 15% on Saturday, defying a Supreme Court ruling that struck down his initial trade measures. The hike, effective immediately, targets major US partners including the EU, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated that Washington aims to steady ties with Beijing after a bruising year of tariff fights. Speaking at an Atlantic Council event on Wednesday, Greer highlighted President Trump's focus on a constructive relationship with China.

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The Trump administration is working to reduce the 50 percent tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, according to a source familiar with the matter. This move aims to address complications from the tariffs imposed last year, which impacted trade partners like Mexico, Canada, and the European Union. Details and the timeline remain unclear.

 

 

 

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