Analysts call Trump's tariff probe on China a bluff

The United States has launched Section 301 investigations into alleged unfair trade practices by China and other economies, potentially allowing higher tariffs to be reimposed, but analysts describe it as a 'bluff' to gain leverage for President Trump's expected trip to China. Beijing, accustomed to such tactics, is unlikely to be fazed.

The United States has decided to launch Section 301 investigations into alleged unfair trade practices by China and several other economies, a move that could pave the way for Washington to reimpose higher tariffs. Analysts say this is a 'bluff' by US President Donald Trump to create perceived leverage ahead of his expected trip to China, aimed at appealing to his domestic base before the midterm elections.

Fu Weigang, president of the Shanghai Institute of Finance and Law, a private think tank, said: 'Trump’s move before his China trip is calculated to appeal to his domestic base ahead of the midterm elections with the message: “I’m going to Beijing with investigations and leverage and won’t compromise.”' He added: 'China knows this is a result of US domestic politics, so it’s no surprise. Chinese exporters have been on the receiving end of such tactics for years, but they have become more resilient.'

The investigations target China, Japan, the European Union, India, and Mexico. Beijing has grown accustomed to Trump's 'art of the deal' tactics, and analysts believe the threat is unlikely to faze it. Trump's visit will be the first by a US president to China in nearly a decade, featuring a summit with President Xi Jinping, with focuses on a potential trade truce and investment revival.

External factors like the situation in Iran are influencing security arrangements, with the trip expected to be confined to Beijing. Reports indicate that the US and China are discussing ways to revive investment, including structured joint ventures and licensing deals, as Beijing seeks protections and Washington aims for better market access.

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Symbolic news image of U.S. trade investigations into 16 economies, featuring Capitol, national flags, factories, and workers.
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U.S. Launches Section 301 Investigations into 16 Economies for Unfair Trade Practices Linked to Excess Capacity

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The Trump administration has initiated Section 301 investigations into South Korea, China, Japan, the European Union, and 13 other economies over unfair practices tied to structural excess capacity in manufacturing. The probes follow a Supreme Court ruling invalidating prior tariffs and aim to establish permanent measures to protect U.S. jobs. South Korea vows active consultations to safeguard its interests.

中国商務省は金曜日、米国の慣行に対する2件の貿易障壁調査の開始を発表した。これは、ワシントンが中国に対して行った2件の通商法301条に基づく調査への対抗措置と説明されている。調査の対象は、世界のサプライチェーンや環境製品の貿易を阻害し、世界貿易機関(WTO)の規則や二国間合意に違反する可能性のある米国の措置である。調査は6か月以内に完了する予定だが、必要に応じて3か月の延長も可能となっている。

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A US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs may weaken President Trump's negotiating position with Chinese President Xi Jinping ahead of a Beijing summit. However, this does not automatically give China an edge. Experts note that Beijing must offer concessions for Trump to claim a success in his transactional style.

U.S. President Donald Trump stated on January 20 during a press conference that he is 'anxiously' awaiting a Supreme Court ruling on the legality of his administration's global tariffs. He defended the levies for bolstering national security and federal revenue while noting that a potential refund process in case of a loss could be complicated. The Supreme Court did not issue a decision on the tariff case that day.

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米通商代表部(USTR)は、外国の関税と非関税障壁のさらなる削減を求め、相互貿易協定の履行を強化し、不公正貿易慣行の新たな調査を検討すると月曜日に発表した。この公約は、トランプ政権の2026年貿易政策アジェンダの一部で、最高裁判所がトランプ大統領の関税を無効とした1週間後に発行された。

6対3の判決で、米最高裁判所は、国際緊急経済権限法に基づいてドナルド・トランプ大統領が課した広範なグローバル関税を、大統領権限の欠如を理由に無効とし、議会承認の欠如を指摘した。この判決は金融市場で安堵のラリーを引き起こし、ビットコインが一時68,000ドルまで急騰したが、継続する不確実性の中で利益は薄れた。トランプ大統領は、第122条に基づく新たな10%のグローバル関税を発表して対応した。

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President Donald Trump warned the US Supreme Court that a ruling against his reciprocal tariffs would cause massive financial chaos, following his call with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. In a Truth Social post, Trump stated that overturning the tariffs would require refunding hundreds of billions of dollars and impact trillions in investments. The Court, skeptical in a November hearing, could annul the measures announced in April 2025.

 

 

 

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