Analysts call Trump's tariff probe on China a bluff

The United States has launched Section 301 investigations into alleged unfair trade practices by China and other economies, potentially allowing higher tariffs to be reimposed, but analysts describe it as a 'bluff' to gain leverage for President Trump's expected trip to China. Beijing, accustomed to such tactics, is unlikely to be fazed.

The United States has decided to launch Section 301 investigations into alleged unfair trade practices by China and several other economies, a move that could pave the way for Washington to reimpose higher tariffs. Analysts say this is a 'bluff' by US President Donald Trump to create perceived leverage ahead of his expected trip to China, aimed at appealing to his domestic base before the midterm elections.

Fu Weigang, president of the Shanghai Institute of Finance and Law, a private think tank, said: 'Trump’s move before his China trip is calculated to appeal to his domestic base ahead of the midterm elections with the message: “I’m going to Beijing with investigations and leverage and won’t compromise.”' He added: 'China knows this is a result of US domestic politics, so it’s no surprise. Chinese exporters have been on the receiving end of such tactics for years, but they have become more resilient.'

The investigations target China, Japan, the European Union, India, and Mexico. Beijing has grown accustomed to Trump's 'art of the deal' tactics, and analysts believe the threat is unlikely to faze it. Trump's visit will be the first by a US president to China in nearly a decade, featuring a summit with President Xi Jinping, with focuses on a potential trade truce and investment revival.

External factors like the situation in Iran are influencing security arrangements, with the trip expected to be confined to Beijing. Reports indicate that the US and China are discussing ways to revive investment, including structured joint ventures and licensing deals, as Beijing seeks protections and Washington aims for better market access.

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U.S. Launches Section 301 Investigations into 16 Economies for Unfair Trade Practices Linked to Excess Capacity

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The Trump administration has initiated Section 301 investigations into South Korea, China, Japan, the European Union, and 13 other economies over unfair practices tied to structural excess capacity in manufacturing. The probes follow a Supreme Court ruling invalidating prior tariffs and aim to establish permanent measures to protect U.S. jobs. South Korea vows active consultations to safeguard its interests.

China's Ministry of Commerce announced two trade barrier investigations into US practices on Friday, described as reciprocal countermeasures to Washington's two Section 301 probes against China. The probes target US measures disrupting global supply chains and green product trade, potentially breaching WTO rules and bilateral agreements. They are set to conclude within six months, with a possible three-month extension.

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A US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs may weaken President Trump's negotiating position with Chinese President Xi Jinping ahead of a Beijing summit. However, this does not automatically give China an edge. Experts note that Beijing must offer concessions for Trump to claim a success in his transactional style.

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The presidents of the United States and China began talks in Beijing focused on bilateral relations and international conflicts. The meeting takes place on May 14 and 15.

 

 

 

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