Bruno Retailleau's calculation on welfare challenged by studies

Bruno Retailleau, president of the Republicans, claimed that a couple with two children could receive the equivalent of 1.7 times the minimum wage without working, to denounce welfare dependency. This figure, from a calculation including cash and in-kind benefits, is however contradicted by recent economic studies showing that working at the minimum wage remains more beneficial. In his 'Winning Work' program presented on January 7, he aims to promote employment ahead of a likely candidacy in the 2027 presidential election.

Bruno Retailleau, president of the right-wing Republicans party (LR), launched his precampaign for the 2027 presidential election with a program titled 'Winning Work,' presented on January 7, 2026. He denounces a doctrine that would make inactivity more attractive than work, stating on France Inter on January 8 that a couple with two children could receive 1.7 times the SMIC without employment.

This calculation is based on a technical note from the Republicans, imagining a fictitious household of two adults over 25 without jobs, living in social housing in Tours (Indre-et-Loire). It aggregates all eligible benefits: RSA, family allowances, housing aid, energy voucher, school grants, social tariffs for transport and canteen, as well as optional subsidies like driving licenses or vacations. The total amounts to 2,374 euros per month, or 1.7 SMIC.

However, studies contradict this claim. A document from the French Economic Observatory (OFCE), published in December 2025, concludes that working at the SMIC is 'always more remunerative' than living on social benefits. According to economists Guillaume Allègre and Muriel Pucci, resuming full-time employment generates a net gain of 700 to 1,200 euros per person in disposable income, after deducting lost benefits.

For a couple with two children, benefits would amount to 1,752 euros (0.6 SMIC per person), compared to 2,886 euros if both work at the SMIC, yielding a gain of 835 to 932 euros. 'It is therefore false to claim that social benefits encourage inactivity,' notes Guillaume Allègre.

Critics highlight several flaws: many benefits (transport, family allowances) are available to workers; family benefits stem from natalist policy, independent of employment; and the fictitious household's standard of living remains below the poverty threshold (1,130 euros per consumption unit, versus 1,288 euros nationally). 'No one wants to live with four people at that standard of living,' emphasizes the economist.

Retailleau, former Interior Minister until October 12, 2025, relies on this mantra 'Encourage work, discourage welfare' for his economic proposals, which echo classic right-wing ideas. His close aides urge him to officialize his candidacy before the March municipal elections.

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Bruno Retailleau, president of the Republicans, officialized his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election on February 12, 2026, through a video on social media and a letter to his parliamentarians. At 65 years old, he depicts a France in decline and promises to restore order, justice, and national pride. He plans referendums on immigration, justice, and sovereignty.

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Economists Bernardo Fontaine and Bettina Horst have warned that the poverty drop revealed by the Casen 2024 survey stems mainly from state subsidies, not rising autonomous household incomes. In a Radio Agricultura discussion, both experts—potential cabinet picks for José Antonio Kast—criticized the growing state dependence and fiscal fragility. The poverty rate fell to 17.3%, but gaps persist, especially among migrants.

During the review of the 2026 budget at the National Assembly on Saturday, October 25, deputies rejected the government's proposed freeze on the income tax scale, choosing instead to index it on inflation. This decision, backed by a broad coalition, deprives the state of 2 billion euros in revenue and affects 200,000 households. Meanwhile, amendments defiscalizing overtime hours and child support payments were adopted, as debates on the Zucman tax drag on.

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Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu announced several measures on Friday evening to amend the 2026 budget project, hoping to secure a compromise with opposition parties and avoid censure. Key announcements include an increase in the activity bonus and the abandonment of unpopular tax reforms. He has given himself until Tuesday to finalize an agreement, without specifying whether he will use Article 49.3 or ordinances.

 

 

 

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