China reliance and tariff wars emerge as top risks for global defence industry

A report by UK consultancy WTW identifies ongoing tariff wars and dependence on China as two top emerging risks for the global defence sector. It warns that the defence sector's reliance on Chinese materials and components, particularly rare earths and electronics, presents significant supply chain vulnerability amid geopolitical risks. The findings are based on interviews with five industry executives from Australia, Europe, and North America.

The report, titled “Managing the new economic risks in the defence sector,” was released on Wednesday by Oxford Analytica and Willis, an arm of WTW. It is based on interviews with an international panel of five industry executives from Australia, Europe, and North America, though their names are not featured.

WTW stated: “The defence sector’s reliance on Chinese materials and components, particularly rare earths and electronics, is presenting significant supply chain vulnerability amid geopolitical risks.” The tariff war between China and the United States is disrupting supply chains and raising costs, making it a key concern for the defence industry going forward.

The findings raise concerns that China could feel targeted by geopolitical lockdown measures in other tariff deals, such as export control alignment and transshipment restrictions, and retaliate by withholding critical minerals and other key supplies, which would have huge implications for the defence industry.

The report highlights how geopolitical tensions and supply chain exposure are reshaping risk calculations for military manufacturers. Keywords include South China Sea, tariff wars, Ukraine, WTW, Russia, Asia, tariff dispute, China, Oxford Analytica, Beijing, Chinese materials, Europe, defence sector, Australia, and rare earths.

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Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama announces G7 pushback against China's rare earth export restrictions at Washington meeting.
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Japan plans G7 pushback against China's rare earth export curbs

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Following China's ban on dual-use exports to Japan's military, a Wall Street Journal report revealed broader restrictions on rare earths to Japanese firms. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama condemned the moves and said Japan will outline its stance at next week's G7 finance ministers' meeting in Washington.

As part of ongoing China-Japan tensions over Taiwan, including Beijing's recent ban on dual-use exports like rare earths, Japanese firms are evaluating supply chain effects, which are not expected until next month at the earliest.

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The 'weaponization' of trade policies by major powers like the United States and China is spreading globally, threatening fair trade. Citing examples such as U.S. tariff threats under President Trump and China's rare earth export restrictions, economist Motoshige Itoh argues for restoring the World Trade Organization's role to counter beggar-thy-neighbor tactics.

Washington says the Forge initiative is about securing supply chains against shocks and price coercion, not building an exclusive bloc. Beijing has claimed it targets China, but a US official rejected this on Thursday.

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The US State Department hosted the first Critical Minerals Ministerial on Wednesday, attended by representatives from over 50 countries and organizations, aiming to break China's dominance in critical minerals vital for smartphones, weapons, and electric vehicle batteries. Vice President JD Vance called on allies to join the initiative to ensure fair market pricing and supply chain stability.

China's Commerce Ministry announced measures against 40 Japanese companies and entities on Tuesday, citing national security concerns over their military ties. It imposed export controls on 20 entities and added another 20 to a watch list for stricter reviews of dual-use items. The actions aim to curb Japan's remilitarization and nuclear ambitions.

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One day after China's announcement of an export ban on dual-use goods to Japan, the restrictions took effect on January 7, threatening established trade flows amid escalating tensions over Taiwan remarks by PM Sanae Takaichi. Japan protested the move as 'unacceptable' and is now evaluating broader fallout from the wide-ranging list of affected military-civilian products.

 

 

 

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