China reliance and tariff wars emerge as top risks for global defence industry

A report by UK consultancy WTW identifies ongoing tariff wars and dependence on China as two top emerging risks for the global defence sector. It warns that the defence sector's reliance on Chinese materials and components, particularly rare earths and electronics, presents significant supply chain vulnerability amid geopolitical risks. The findings are based on interviews with five industry executives from Australia, Europe, and North America.

The report, titled “Managing the new economic risks in the defence sector,” was released on Wednesday by Oxford Analytica and Willis, an arm of WTW. It is based on interviews with an international panel of five industry executives from Australia, Europe, and North America, though their names are not featured.

WTW stated: “The defence sector’s reliance on Chinese materials and components, particularly rare earths and electronics, is presenting significant supply chain vulnerability amid geopolitical risks.” The tariff war between China and the United States is disrupting supply chains and raising costs, making it a key concern for the defence industry going forward.

The findings raise concerns that China could feel targeted by geopolitical lockdown measures in other tariff deals, such as export control alignment and transshipment restrictions, and retaliate by withholding critical minerals and other key supplies, which would have huge implications for the defence industry.

The report highlights how geopolitical tensions and supply chain exposure are reshaping risk calculations for military manufacturers. Keywords include South China Sea, tariff wars, Ukraine, WTW, Russia, Asia, tariff dispute, China, Oxford Analytica, Beijing, Chinese materials, Europe, defence sector, Australia, and rare earths.

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Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama announces G7 pushback against China's rare earth export restrictions at Washington meeting.
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Japan plans G7 pushback against China's rare earth export curbs

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Following China's ban on dual-use exports to Japan's military, a Wall Street Journal report revealed broader restrictions on rare earths to Japanese firms. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama condemned the moves and said Japan will outline its stance at next week's G7 finance ministers' meeting in Washington.

As part of ongoing China-Japan tensions over Taiwan, including Beijing's recent ban on dual-use exports like rare earths, Japanese firms are evaluating supply chain effects, which are not expected until next month at the earliest.

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The 'weaponization' of trade policies by major powers like the United States and China is spreading globally, threatening fair trade. Citing examples such as U.S. tariff threats under President Trump and China's rare earth export restrictions, economist Motoshige Itoh argues for restoring the World Trade Organization's role to counter beggar-thy-neighbor tactics.

In a virtual conversation at the University of Hong Kong’s Centre on Contemporary China and the World, Chinese scholar Wang Jisi warned that the current world order of ‘two superpowers and many strong powers’ faces growing risks of conflict. He voiced concerns about America’s inward turn under US President Donald Trump, Washington’s pursuit of containment in geopolitical and geoeconomic terms, and mounting cross-strait tensions.

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Taiwanese Vice-Premier Cheng Li-chiun stated that the government will continue to reinforce critical infrastructure and defenses against unmanned aerial vehicles to prepare for new forms of grey-zone conflicts, including drone intrusions. Trump's comments have fueled doubts about US commitment.

Tariffs may ebb and supply chains may detour, but US shoppers and giants like Walmart and Amazon still rely heavily on Chinese goods. At the National Retail Federation (NRF) showcase, attendees expressed more optimism for the year ahead.

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China's commerce ministry announced on January 7 an immediate ban on exports of dual-use goods to Japan. Japan's foreign ministry protested the move as 'extremely regrettable' and demanded its withdrawal. The measure appears to be retaliation for remarks on Taiwan by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

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