DHL bets on Chinese exports despite war and tariff risks

Logistics giant DHL expects revenues to soar by 2030, driven largely by Chinese companies' global ambitions, even amid disruptions from the US-Israel war on Iran and unpredictable tariffs. Oscar de Bok, CEO of its global forwarding and freight business, highlighted China's crucial supply chain role in a Shanghai interview.

Global trade flows face severe disruption from the US-Israel war on Iran and unpredictable tariff policies. Yet logistics giant DHL, headquartered in Germany, still anticipates soaring revenues, largely thanks to Chinese companies' rising global ambitions. The firm has set a target to grow revenues 50 per cent by 2030 compared with 2023 levels, viewing medium-sized Chinese companies as a key customer base, said Oscar de Bok, CEO of its global forwarding and freight business, during a group interview in Shanghai on Tuesday. > “If you look at the overall global supply chain, China plays a crucial role,” de Bok said. “The flow from China to the rest of the world is still increasing.” China's outbound trade resilience underpins DHL's ambitious goals amid the Middle East crisis and shifting trade barriers, de Bok noted. The wave of Chinese firms expanding overseas offers huge growth potential for the multinational.

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Illustration of China's record Q1 foreign trade growth, depicting a busy port with ships, cranes, and surging trade graphs.
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China's Q1 foreign trade up 15%, fastest in five years

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China's foreign trade reached 11.84 trillion yuan ($1.63 trillion) in the first quarter of 2026, up 15% year on year, the fastest quarterly growth in nearly five years, officials from the General Administration of Customs announced on Tuesday. Exports totaled 6.85 trillion yuan, up 11.9%, while imports rose 19.6% to 4.99 trillion yuan. The figure marks the first time first-quarter trade has exceeded 11 trillion yuan.

The conflict in the Middle East is disrupting global logistics chains, risking longer delays for packages headed to French consumers. Tensions are particularly affecting air freight through hubs in Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi. Fuel price increases are also being observed.

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Analysts forecast accelerated growth for the global luxury sector in 2026, with China’s consumer spending rebound as a key driver despite challenges from a volatile property market and oil shocks from the war in Iran. HSBC, Deutsche Bank and BNP Paribas predict global sales growth of 5.5 to 6 per cent.

Singapore-headquartered GLP expects logistics rents in China to rise 30-50% as market supply stabilises toward pre-Covid-19 levels. GLP China CEO Zhao told the South China Morning Post the firm will expand in logistics, data centres and renewable energy amid Beijing's push for domestic demand. The company operates extensively in China with significant property and energy assets.

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Hong Kong International Airport expects revenue to grow by up to 10% this year despite disruptions from the Iran conflict, its CEO Vivian Cheung Kar-fay said. She aims to position the facility as an alternative aviation hub to the Middle East. The airport anticipates welcoming about 70 million passengers, up from 61 million last year.

At a news conference in Beijing, Liu Jieyi, spokesman for the fourth session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, stated that China will deepen high-level opening-up and accelerate free trade zone development to stabilize economic growth amid rising global uncertainties. He highlighted that China's economy demonstrated 'remarkable resilience and vitality' over the past year despite a complex external environment.

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Amid rising oil prices and risk-off sentiment from the Middle East war, analysts recommend sectors where firms have pricing power. Chinese companies in energy, petrochemicals, and agriculture stand to benefit from surging oil prices and easing deflation.

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