DHL bets on Chinese exports despite war and tariff risks

Logistics giant DHL expects revenues to soar by 2030, driven largely by Chinese companies' global ambitions, even amid disruptions from the US-Israel war on Iran and unpredictable tariffs. Oscar de Bok, CEO of its global forwarding and freight business, highlighted China's crucial supply chain role in a Shanghai interview.

Global trade flows face severe disruption from the US-Israel war on Iran and unpredictable tariff policies. Yet logistics giant DHL, headquartered in Germany, still anticipates soaring revenues, largely thanks to Chinese companies' rising global ambitions. The firm has set a target to grow revenues 50 per cent by 2030 compared with 2023 levels, viewing medium-sized Chinese companies as a key customer base, said Oscar de Bok, CEO of its global forwarding and freight business, during a group interview in Shanghai on Tuesday. > “If you look at the overall global supply chain, China plays a crucial role,” de Bok said. “The flow from China to the rest of the world is still increasing.” China's outbound trade resilience underpins DHL's ambitious goals amid the Middle East crisis and shifting trade barriers, de Bok noted. The wave of Chinese firms expanding overseas offers huge growth potential for the multinational.

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Illustration of China's record Q1 foreign trade growth, depicting a busy port with ships, cranes, and surging trade graphs.
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China's Q1 foreign trade up 15%, fastest in five years

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China's foreign trade reached 11.84 trillion yuan ($1.63 trillion) in the first quarter of 2026, up 15% year on year, the fastest quarterly growth in nearly five years, officials from the General Administration of Customs announced on Tuesday. Exports totaled 6.85 trillion yuan, up 11.9%, while imports rose 19.6% to 4.99 trillion yuan. The figure marks the first time first-quarter trade has exceeded 11 trillion yuan.

Analysts forecast accelerated growth for the global luxury sector in 2026, with China’s consumer spending rebound as a key driver despite challenges from a volatile property market and oil shocks from the war in Iran. HSBC, Deutsche Bank and BNP Paribas predict global sales growth of 5.5 to 6 per cent.

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Amid energy shocks from the Iran war threatening Southeast Asia’s supply chains, US and European importers are shifting some orders back to China. Chinese exporters report a recovery in buyer numbers at the Canton Fair in Guangzhou.

Clément Beaune, head of France's Planning Council, proposes 30 percent tariffs on all Chinese imports to shield European industry. In a Handelsblatt interview, the close confidant of President Emmanuel Macron warns of a gigantic Chinese industrial threat, hitting Germany hardest amid a fresh energy crisis.

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