Soybean prices surpassed US$400 per ton in the Chicago market following an agreement between the United States and China, under which the Asian country committed to purchasing American grains. However, local prices fell in Rosario. Experts warn of potential negative impacts for Argentina and Brazil.
On October 30, 2025, the international soybean market saw a significant rebound driven by a recent trade agreement between the United States and China. Reports indicate that China committed to purchasing American-origin grains, pushing the oilseed's price above US$400 per ton in Chicago during a positive trading session. This development involves leaders such as Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, highlighting trade tensions in the agricultural sector.
Despite the global rise, local prices in Rosario, Argentina's main grain hub, declined, reflecting distinct local dynamics. Analysts warn that the agreement could harm producers in Argentina and Brazil, key soybean exporters, by shifting demand toward U.S. supplies. The World Bank's commodity outlook report notes that reduced U.S.-China trade tensions, particularly in soybeans, pose an upside risk to global prices, but also emphasizes vulnerabilities like weather events.
In context, the soybean complex is crucial for Argentina, generating nearly 25% of its total exports in 2024, amounting to 19.624 million dollars. However, projections show commodity prices falling 7% in both 2025 and 2026 due to weak global economic growth and supply surpluses. Additionally, a potential La Niña event late in 2025 could worsen droughts in Argentine agricultural regions, impacting soybean production and driving prices above current estimates if prolonged.