Analysts indicate that bitcoin's market bottom could be approaching when valued against gold, potentially as soon as next month. This view contrasts with longer-term dollar-based forecasts extending into late 2026. Factors like global uncertainty and ETF outflows have pressured bitcoin relative to gold's recent gains.
Bitcoin's price trajectory shows signs of a potential bottom when measured in gold terms, according to research from Mercado Bitcoin's Rony Szuster. In a report shared with CoinDesk, Szuster notes that bitcoin reached its high against gold in January 2025. Applying historical bear market patterns of 12 to 13 months, this suggests a bottom around February 2026, with recovery possibly starting in March.
In contrast, when priced in USD, bitcoin's most recent peak was in October 2025 at about $126,000. Following past cycles, the downturn could last until late 2026. Global events have influenced this divergence, including aggressive trade tariffs since Donald Trump’s new mandate, U.S. institutional disputes, and escalating tensions with China and Iran, leading to ongoing military conflict. The World Uncertainty Index has surged accordingly, boosting gold by more than 80% over the past year to $5,280, as capital shifted toward bullion.
Spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds have seen outflows of about $7.8 billion since November, equating to 12% of the $61.6 billion total inflows. However, large investors, or 'whales,' appear to be accumulating; Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Investment Company and Al Warda Investments added exposure to spot bitcoin ETFs in mid-February. Szuster advises a dollar-cost averaging strategy, stating, “Historically, buying during periods of fear has been more effective than buying during euphoria.” He adds, “Does this mean it's already the bottom? No. But it means that, statistically, we are in the zone where the best average prices are usually built.”
Separately, Samson Mow, CEO of Jan3, echoes the undervaluation theme on X, saying, “Bitcoin is about 24%-66% below its trend relative to gold's market cap or global money supply, while gold is overextended.” Gold futures closed at $5,247.90, with tokenized PAX Gold at $5,404.14. Mow highlights bitcoin’s Z-score against gold at -1.24; historically, drops below -2 have preceded major rallies, such as over 150% in the 12 months after November 2022 and over 300% following March 2020.
This optimistic view counters other analysts predicting a drop to $50,000, mirroring the 2022 bear market where bitcoin fell over 50% to a $60,000 low before recovering to near $66,400 amid recent Middle East developments.
