Bitcoin fell below $100,000 for the first time since June on Tuesday, marking a technical bear market with a drop of more than 20% from its October all-time high. Despite the plunge, cryptocurrency experts remain optimistic about a potential recovery amid ongoing volatility. The sell-off coincides with outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and sales by long-term holders.
Bitcoin's price tumbled as much as 7.4% on Tuesday, dipping below the $100,000 mark for the first time since June and entering a technical bear market, down more than 20% from its record high of $126,198 reached on October 7. The cryptocurrency recovered slightly, gaining 1.7% on Wednesday morning in New York to trade around $101,763, with a 24-hour range between $98,962 and $104,736. This decline extended losses into November after October's sharp sell-off, which included the worst-ever liquidation event for Bitcoin.
Long-term holders, or 'whales,' have offloaded around 400,000 Bitcoin—worth about $45 billion—over the past month, contributing to market imbalance, according to Markus Thielen of 10x Research. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of $566 million on Tuesday, following $187 million the previous day, with Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) recording $357 million in exits. Ethereum-based ETFs faced $219 million in outflows. Overall crypto liquidations reached $1.72 billion in the past 24 hours, mostly long positions at $1.3 billion.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropped to 20, indicating fear, down from 27 a day earlier. Citi analysts noted that sharp liquidations from last month have shaken investor confidence, with flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs slowing considerably. Bitcoin has also fallen below its 200-day moving average, signaling potential further demand hurdles. The number of large Bitcoin holders has decreased while smaller retail wallets rise, suggesting sales by long-term investors.
Despite the turbulence, experts like Vitaliy Shtyrkin of B2BINPAY view the $100,000 level as key support, predicting consolidation over a deeper correction. Ray Youssef of Paxful sees the market nearing capitulation, often a precursor to rebounds. Nic Puckrin called the 20% drop a buying opportunity, forecasting $150,000 this cycle. Guillermo Fernandes expects a slower recovery but higher prices by year-end, while Carlos Guzman anticipates short-term pain but positive outlook over six to 12 months.
