Cuba's informal dollar rate has recently dropped from 490 to around 410 CUP, possibly influenced by a disinformation campaign and Hurricane Melissa's impact. This volatility follows the economic 'overshooting' pattern seen since 2022. Experts attribute the movement to speculative expectations and media noise, not fundamental changes.
Since 2022, Cuba's informal foreign exchange market has shown high volatility, with the dollar and euro experiencing rapid rises followed by partial corrections, a phenomenon known as 'overshooting' described by economist Rudi Dornbusch in 1976. In this model, after a shock like an economic announcement or confidence crisis, foreign currencies rise excessively before correcting, but not to the previous level.
Examples include August-October 2022, when after the official purchase scheme at 120 CUP per dollar, the informal rate jumped to 200 CUP and then fell to 165 CUP. In July-September 2023, it reached 215-225 CUP before stabilizing at 190-200 CUP. In May-June 2024, it rose to nearly 400 CUP, driven by the 'herd effect,' and dropped below 300 CUP, with interference from over 2,000 social media accounts posting fake offers against elTOQUE's Tasa Representativa del Mercado Informal (TRMI).
In 2025, unlike previous years, there has been a sustained rise to record highs, but in October-November, the rate fell sharply. OMFi's latest bulletin warns that since September, speculative purchases have added to demand for imports and travel. This correction could signal overshooting after an overbought period, or relate to Hurricane Melissa's impact in eastern Cuba and a new disinformation campaign.
Since October 22, 2025, hundreds of accounts—many with AI-generated profile photos—spread 'No al TOQUE' messages in Facebook and WhatsApp groups, questioning the TRMI. These operations create temporary confusion: if people believe the dollar will fall, some sell, distorting the rate briefly. However, they do not alter fundamentals like inflation, fiscal deficit, or currency scarcity. The volatility reflects an economy without anchors, where distrust perpetuates cycles of Cuban peso weakening.