Following the round of 16 draw that set challenging brackets, the Opta supercomputer has installed Bayern Munich as favorites to win the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League after dominant first-leg results. English clubs struggled, with Arsenal drawing 1-1 at Bayer Leverkusen and others losing, while Bayern's 6-1 thrashing of Atalanta—even without Harry Kane—highlighted their title credentials.
The first legs of the 2025-26 Champions League round of 16 produced 32 goals across eight ties, dramatically shifting predictions after the February 27 draw created uneven brackets.
Bayern Munich stunned with a 6-1 win over Atalanta despite missing Harry Kane (45 goals this season), vaulting to the top of Opta rankings at 26.34% chance to win it all. Arsenal, prior favorites, dropped to 22.07% after a 1-1 draw at Bayer Leverkusen, ending their perfect run.
English sides faltered elsewhere: Manchester City lost 0-3 at home to Real Madrid (boosting Madrid to 8.34%), Liverpool fell 0-1 to Galatasaray, and Chelsea were routed 2-5 by Paris Saint-Germain (10.17%). Barcelona rose to 12.10% post 1-1 draw with Newcastle United, while Atlético Madrid hit 6.14% after 5-2 over Tottenham Hotspur. Bodø/Glimt earned 2.15% with a 3-0 win over Sporting CP.
Advancement odds for second legs: Bayern 99.96% vs. Atalanta, PSG 92.96% vs. Chelsea, Real Madrid 82.95% vs. Man City, Liverpool just 51.36% vs. Galatasaray.
