A Datafolha poll released on December 6, 2025, shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading second-round simulations for 2026 but with 44% rejection, the highest among pre-candidates. Ineligible Jair Bolsonaro has 45% rejection, while family members and right-wing governors show lower rates. Lula's government evaluation remains stable at 32% approval and 37% disapproval.
The Datafolha poll, conducted December 2-4, 2025, with 2,002 voters in 113 municipalities, has a 2 percentage point margin of error. Lula wins all tested second-round scenarios: against Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ), 51% to 36%; against Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos-SP), 47% to 42%; and a technical tie with Ratinho Jr. (PSD-PR).
Lula's rejection is 44%, similar to Bolsonaro's 45%. Flávio Bolsonaro, indicated by the ex-president for the presidency, has 38% rejection, followed by Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP) at 37% and Michelle Bolsonaro at 35%. Right-wing governors have lower rates: Tarcísio, 20%; Ratinho Jr. and Romeu Zema (Novo-MG), 21%; Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil-GO), 18%.
After Flávio's indication, Caiado stated: 'Jair Bolsonaro has the right to seek to viable the senator's candidacy.' Zema commented: 'It makes total sense for Flávio to present his name for the presidency. It is fair and democratic.'
On government evaluation, approval dipped slightly from 33% to 32%, with disapproval at 37%. By gender, men approve 32% and disapprove 39%; women, 33% and 34%. Evangelicals disapprove 49% versus 21% approval; Catholics approve 40%. In the 2-5 minimum wage bracket, disapproval fell from 47% to 39%, possibly linked to IR exemption. By race, whites disapprove 45%; by region, the South has 45% rejection, the Northeast 24%.
