Fuel price hikes to inflate South African food baskets amid US-Iran war

Following sharp fuel price increases from 6 May 2026 due to the US-Iran war, higher fuel and fertiliser costs are driving up food prices in South Africa. The basic food basket for Social Relief of Distress (SRD) grant recipients has reached R423.86, surpassing the R370 grant and heightening food insecurity risks for low-income households, economists warn.

Food producers are grappling with elevated input costs from fuel and fertiliser, exacerbated by the US-Iran conflict. As detailed in prior coverage, petrol and diesel prices surged on 6 May, following temporary government fuel levy reductions that expire in early June.

Maverick Citizen monitors a basket of 14 basic food items affordable on the R370 SRD grant, which climbed R16 to R423.86 from March to April 2026, propelled by rice (+R10) and cabbage (+R5). The Pietermaritzburg Economic Justice and Dignity’s Household Affordability Index records a 44-item basket at R5,452.09 in April (up R123.66 from March), with a nutritional basket for a family of seven at R6,618.99.

SRD recipient Bhungane Zibi from Mthatha shared his plight: “It fluctuates. It could be R8 one month or R12 or even R14 the next. I spend most of the grant on maize meal, electricity, sugar, cooking oil... The rest on soap, vaseline, toothpaste.” By 9 April, only R60 remained, supplemented by family aid and odd jobs.

"This will most certainly impact food prices because food producers use diesel, and transporting food from farm to plate requires petrol and diesel," said Dr Dieter von Fintel of Stellenbosch University. The Competition Commission’s March report flagged ‘rocket and feather’ pricing in staples like eggs and maize meal, where retail prices fail to drop with producer costs.

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Illustration depicting rising fuel prices at a Seoul gas station amid South Korea's 2.6% consumer inflation surge from oil shock in Strait of Hormuz.
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South Korea's consumer prices accelerate to 2.6% in April amid oil shock

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South Korea's consumer prices rose 2.6 percent year-on-year in April, up from March's 2.2 percent and the fastest pace in 21 months, driven by soaring fuel costs from the ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption. Government data confirmed the figures.

Petrol prices in South Africa will increase by 14% and diesel by nearly 24% from Wednesday, 6 May, due to the ongoing Iran war. The Department of Mineral Resources and Petroleum (DMPR) announced the hikes amid rising global Brent crude prices. Temporary fuel levy reductions offer some relief.

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South Africa’s Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago has warned that the war in the Middle East will lead to higher fuel and food prices due to rising oil and fertiliser costs. He made the comments while attending the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington DC. The impacts are expected to filter through the economy later this year.

Ethiopia's Ministry of Trade and Regional Integration has raised fuel prices effective April 1, 2026, with white diesel increasing by 16.6% to 163.09 birr per liter. The move comes as the fuel subsidy burden reaches nearly 272 billion birr. Officials cite global oil market disruptions from Middle East conflicts.

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Ethiopia's birr has depreciated sharply against the US dollar, driving up fertilizer and fuel prices. This threatens gains from a targeted 7 million metric tons wheat harvest in the 2026/27 season. The currency weakened from 75 birr to 155 birr per dollar since July 2024, a 107 percent loss in value by February 2026.

Global food prices rose to their highest level since September in March, fueled by higher energy costs linked to the West Asia conflict. The United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization cautioned that a prolonged war could reduce planting and yields, affecting supplies and prices through this year and beyond.

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Kenya's government plans to use a Sh17 billion subsidy to protect citizens from fuel price increases over the next 60 days if Middle East conflicts extend beyond May and June. Finance Minister John Mbadi disclosed these plans to MPs, including potential VAT adjustments.

 

 

 

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