SVT/Verian's December poll shows Tidö parties trailing the opposition by 7.2 percentage points, but several factors suggest a possible turnaround ahead of the election in nine months. The Christian Democrats reach their highest rating in three years while the Left Party falls below seven percent. The analysis highlights improving economy and divided opposition as positive signs.
The four Tidö leaders recently gathered in Ulf Kristersson's (M) kitchen to plan the next term, but SVT/Verian's latest opinion poll offers no reasons for joy. The block difference stands at 7.2 percentage points in favor of the opposition, a one-point decrease from the previous poll but not statistically significant. To win the election, Tidö parties need over 200,000 voters to switch sides.
The Christian Democrats (KD) stand out positively with 5.0 percent, their highest rating since October 2022. According to Per Söderpalm, Verian's head of polling, KD is mainly gaining voters from the Moderates (M), who lose 1.2 percentage points. KD's progress may be linked to Ebba Busch's controversial statements on cross-block cooperation and her rising trust during the fall.
The Left Party (V), however, falls below seven percent, the lowest since 2016, following a weak trend since the 2024 EU election. Negative news such as allegations of antisemitism and resignations have driven voters to the Social Democrats (S), who hold steady despite criticism of Aip Media.
Several factors favor Tidö's comeback: a brighter economy next year with increased growth and real wages, plus budget boosts for households. Gang crime shows signs of improvement with fewer shootings and more solved cases. The opposition's division, especially between the Center Party (C) and V, hinders a united front.
Challenges remain, including high unemployment at 8.4 percent in 2026 and the Liberals' (L) crisis with their lowest rating ever. The Sweden Democrats' (SD) demands for ministerial posts risk alienating centrist voters. The 2026 election is expected to be close.
