President Donald Trump said in a Tuesday CNBC interview that he anticipated oil prices surging to $200 per barrel when he authorized military action against Iran. Current prices stand at $90 per barrel, the highest since 2022, lower than his forecast. He also noted the stock market has remained stable despite his predictions of a sharp decline.
Trump explained that he braced for harsher economic fallout from tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil transit point. However, he expressed surprise that prices have not exceeded $90. “If you would have told me that oil was at $90 as opposed to $200, I would be frankly surprised,” Trump said. He added, “It’s an amazing phenomenon but when there are problems, people find out how to take care of things.” People have sourced oil from alternative routes amid the conflict, according to the president. Oil peaked at $150 per barrel in 2008, equivalent to about $230 today; a $200 level would surpass that record. Trump also highlighted the stock market's resilience. The S&P 500 Index is trading at the same level as before the hostilities began, defying his expectation of a 20% or greater drop. “Look at the S&P 500 Index — it’s trading at exactly the same level as when we began all this. I thought it would drop 20% or more, and that oil prices would be much higher — but I’m pleased to say that hasn’t happened,” he stated. The president justified the action as necessary to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. With the Dow at 50,000 and S&P at 7,000, he said, “I hate to do this to everybody, but I’m going to have to journey down to a place called Iran and make sure they don’t have a nuclear weapon because they will blow up the world.” He warned of broader risks: “You want to see a bad stock market, try blowing up the Middle East then Europe and then they come for us.” Oil futures indicate prices may fall soon, potentially to pre-conflict levels within six months, with late 2026 contracts around $40 per barrel and year-end expectations in the mid-$70s.
