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Illustration of 2026 Brazil election poll highlighting Lula's lead, Tarcísio tie, and Lula-Bolsonaro polarization.
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First 2026 poll reinforces polarization in presidential elections

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A poll released early in 2026 shows President Lula leading in electoral scenarios, with Tarcísio de Freitas as the only opponent tying in the second round. The survey highlights the persistence of polarization between Lula and bolsonarismo, with no clear space for a third way. Analysts note that the election will be decided by rejections, amid challenges like incumbent fatigue and effects of judicial convictions.

An AtlasIntel analysis shows President Lula holding a solid voter base but struggling to exceed 50% in a potential 2026 second-round matchup. Director Yuri Sanches points to antipetismo's influence and the right's need to unify to prevent a first-round PT victory. Advances by figures like Flávio Bolsonaro indicate the normalization of bolsonarismo in polls.

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Two days after vetoing a bill that would reduce penalties for January 8 golpists, President Lula released a video preaching unity between opposing political currents. Recorded during a vacation in Restinga da Marambaia, Rio de Janeiro, the material was shared by First Lady Janja and uses a sea waves metaphor to combat ideological prejudices.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has scheduled nine bilateral meetings for Wednesday (5) in Belém, on the eve of the COP30 world leaders' summit. Highlights include meetings with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Chinese Vice-Premier Ding Xuexiang. The talks will take place at the Museu Paraense Emílio Goeldi, focusing on climate negotiations and bilateral relations.

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President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva turned 80 on October 27, becoming the first octogenarian to hold the office in Brazil. He celebrated the occasion during an official visit to Malaysia, where he is attending the Asean summit. Lula stated he has the energy to run for re-election in 2026.

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