CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten warned that Democrats are trailing historical benchmarks in popularity ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Speaking on Monday with anchor John Berman, Enten highlighted Republicans' current five-point lead in net favorability. He assessed Democrats' chances as better for the House than the Senate.
Harry Enten, CNN's chief data analyst, discussed polling data on Monday morning, less than eight months before the November midterms. With a Republican president in office, he noted Democrats' net favorability lags far behind past cycles. 'In 2018, Dems were up by 12. In 2006, Dems [were] ahead by 18. Republicans are actually ahead on net favorability at this point by five points,' Enten said. Democrats, he argued, need a stronger lead to flip the Senate given the electoral math. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, plus two independents who caucus with Democrats. To gain control, Democrats must flip at least four seats. Enten pointed to Democrats' slim five-point average lead on generic congressional ballots, lower than the eight points in 2018 or 11 in 2006. This margin, he said, aligns with a presidential approval rating of minus 20 to minus 30 and may suffice to retake the slim Republican House majority but falls short for the Senate map. 'Five points is enough to take back the House, but in the Senate, five points is almost certainly not enough,' Enten told Berman. The 2026 Senate map favors Republicans, according to Enten. Even if they hold only states Donald Trump won by more than 10 points, the GOP would secure a 51-49 majority. Ballotpedia lists battleground seats including Alaska, Montana, Texas, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire and Maine.
