The German pharmaceutical industry sees 3.2 percent production growth amid overall economic decline. This stems from the US tariff dispute, prompting rushed exports. The Association of Research-Based Pharmaceutical Companies (VFA) anticipates sustained high turnover through year-end.
The Association of Research-Based Pharmaceutical Companies (VFA) forecasts 3.2 percent production growth in the pharmaceutical sector this year, contrasting with a 1.7 percent decline in overall German industry. Investments are expected to rise by 2.7 percent, turnover by 3.4 percent, and employment in Germany to increase slightly.
A key driver is the tariff dispute with US President Donald Trump. In spring, he threatened tariffs on the pharmaceutical industry, prompting companies to rush exports of medicines to the USA. This led to sharp rises in production and exports. The effect persists as redirected shipments are now catching up in other markets, according to the VFA: "The recent high exports to other countries show that deliveries initially diverted to the USA are now being made up to the original recipient countries."
The USA is a vital market, receiving about a quarter of pharmaceutical exports. Trump recently threatened 100 percent tariffs on branded medicines and patented drugs from October 1. Later, US government sources indicated the EU would be exempt, with a 15 percent cap on drug imports.
The Trump administration is pressuring the industry to curb high US drug prices. Firms like Roche, Novartis, and Sanofi announced billions in US investments; Darmstadt-based Merck struck a deal with the government. Still, investments in Germany will continue to grow: "Even if investments in Germany are partially deferred in favor of the USA, pharmaceutical investments in this country are likely to continue rising," the VFA stated. For 2026, the association anticipates a slight 0.7 percent turnover decline.