Fuel prices in the Philippines are set to surge next week due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, according to the Department of Energy. Minimum increases are estimated at P19 per liter for diesel, P9 for gasoline, and P31 for kerosene, though diesel could reach P90 per liter without staggered hikes. The DOE has warned against hoarding and price manipulation.
On March 7, 2026, the Department of Energy (DOE) projected fuel price increases based on recent oil market movements influenced by Middle East tensions, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries 20 percent of the world's oil and gas. Rino Abad, director of the DOE’s Oil Industry Management Bureau, stated in a dzBB interview that minimum hikes would be P19 per liter for diesel, P9 for gasoline, and P31 for kerosene. “'Di ko masabi 'yung sinasabi nilang premiums kasi ang sama ng sitwasyon ngayon, so minimum tayo diyan, P9,” Abad said. He added, “Ang diesel, ang minimum siguro diyan mga P19 pesos per liter. Ang kerosene would be P31 pesos.”
These estimates exceed earlier projections of P15.33 for diesel and P7.09 for gasoline from the first three trading days. Premiums or insurance costs are not yet included. Oil companies requested a week to finalize calculations, and the DOE recommended staggered hikes for large increases, following President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s appeal. “Kung malaki daw masyado, baka mag-daily sila ng staggered increase. Pero kung maliit lang, puwede nilang gawin twice a week,” Abad explained.
Before the Senate foreign relations committee, Abad noted diesel could reach P80-P90 per liter with a one-time hike but less if staggered. In Metro Manila, standard diesel currently sells for P49 to P66.59 per liter, and premium diesel for P56.80 to P74.81. Some stations raised prices early, like in Tagum City, and were ordered by the DOE to revert.
Energy Secretary Sharon Garin said oil firms are amenable to staggering after a second meeting. Due to tensions, China has halted new gasoline and diesel export contracts, according to Leo Bellas of Jetti Petroleum. “Asian refiners are struggling to secure prompt replacement crude cargoes,” he told reporters. The country has stockpiles for 50 days of diesel, gasoline, and fuel oil; 67 days for kerosene; and 29 days for LPG. The government plans to procure one million barrels of diesel for an additional five days.
The DOE has intensified monitoring against profiteering, working with the DILG and PNP. The LTFRB awaits approval for P2.5 billion in fuel subsidies for public utility vehicle operators when oil hits $80 per barrel. Manibela chairman Mar Valbuena reported Oiland selling diesel at P90 per liter already, with some drivers considering stopping operations. They urged Congress to suspend the fuel excise tax. Former Bayan Muna representative Carlos Zarate warned of a potential inflation explosion if the crisis is not addressed decisively.
