Chinese experts assess Japan's nuclear potential amid policy debate

In the wake of a Japanese official's recent suggestion to acquire nuclear weapons, Chinese experts warn Tokyo could develop them in under three years, citing advanced technologies and revisiting Henry Kissinger's prediction of Japan going nuclear by 2028.

Following a senior official from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's office stating last week that Japan should possess nuclear weapons amid a harsh security environment—a remark that prompted Tokyo's reaffirmation of its three non-nuclear principles—Chinese nuclear experts are scrutinizing Japan's capabilities.

Beijing is re-examining late US statesman Henry Kissinger's warning that Tokyo aims to become a nuclear power by 2028. Experts conclude Japan could build weapons in less than three years, leveraging civilian nuclear infrastructure, missile tech, the Epsilon rocket, Fugaku supercomputer, Gekko XII laser facility, and planned Tomahawk missiles. JAXA and IAEA activities heighten concerns.

Takaichi's comments last month on the non-nuclear principles, seen as probing legal openings, add to the scrutiny. While Japanese officials uphold the pacifist constitution, China remains vigilant on proliferation, with Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian avoiding direct response amid tensions involving North Korea and the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.

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Dramatic illustration of Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi at podium amid Taiwan controversy, with experts warning of militarism revival and regional tensions.
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Japanese PM's Taiwan remarks raise militarism revival alarm: experts

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Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi recently made gravely erroneous remarks on the Taiwan question, drawing widespread international criticism. Experts argue that these statements are not accidental but an inevitable outcome of Japan's long-term rightward political shift, warning of risks to regional peace and a potential revival of militarism.

Japan's government reaffirmed its decades-old pledge against possessing nuclear weapons on Friday following remarks by a senior official suggesting acquisition for deterrence. Opposition parties called for the official's dismissal, while the government stressed commitment to the three non-nuclear principles.

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Leading Chinese think tanks released a report on Thursday in Beijing, warning of rising nuclear weapon ambitions by Japan's right-wing forces and calling on the international community to closely monitor and counter the threat. The report highlights Japan's recent attempts to revise its three non-nuclear principles, raising concerns over the international nuclear nonproliferation regime.

North Korea criticized Japan's plan to revise three key national security documents, calling it a revival of 'neo-militarism' that would result in 'complete self-destruction.' The Korean Central News Agency issued the statement on January 11, 2026, following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's New Year's announcement of the review amid ongoing regional tensions.

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In the wake of China's January 7 ban on dual-use exports to Japan's military—prompted by politician Sanae Takaichi's Taiwan remarks and already protested by Tokyo as 'extremely regrettable'—analysts warn of vulnerabilities in the semiconductor sector, where Japan holds key leverage amid escalating tensions.

Following recent Foreign Ministry warnings, China has urged the United States to join a united front against resurgent Japanese militarism, citing threats to its Taiwan interests. State media highlight Tokyo's blurring of civilian-military lines, including PM Sanae Takaichi's nuclear armament proposal.

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Two weeks after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's controversial Taiwan remarks ignited tensions, China has escalated with diplomatic, economic, and military pressures. Tokyo refuses to back down, and analysts warn the standoff's length hinges on the US-China-Japan triangle.

 

 

 

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