Chinese experts assess Japan's nuclear potential amid policy debate

In the wake of a Japanese official's recent suggestion to acquire nuclear weapons, Chinese experts warn Tokyo could develop them in under three years, citing advanced technologies and revisiting Henry Kissinger's prediction of Japan going nuclear by 2028.

Following a senior official from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's office stating last week that Japan should possess nuclear weapons amid a harsh security environment—a remark that prompted Tokyo's reaffirmation of its three non-nuclear principles—Chinese nuclear experts are scrutinizing Japan's capabilities.

Beijing is re-examining late US statesman Henry Kissinger's warning that Tokyo aims to become a nuclear power by 2028. Experts conclude Japan could build weapons in less than three years, leveraging civilian nuclear infrastructure, missile tech, the Epsilon rocket, Fugaku supercomputer, Gekko XII laser facility, and planned Tomahawk missiles. JAXA and IAEA activities heighten concerns.

Takaichi's comments last month on the non-nuclear principles, seen as probing legal openings, add to the scrutiny. While Japanese officials uphold the pacifist constitution, China remains vigilant on proliferation, with Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian avoiding direct response amid tensions involving North Korea and the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.

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Dramatic illustration of Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi at podium amid Taiwan controversy, with experts warning of militarism revival and regional tensions.
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Japanese PM's Taiwan remarks raise militarism revival alarm: experts

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Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi recently made gravely erroneous remarks on the Taiwan question, drawing widespread international criticism. Experts argue that these statements are not accidental but an inevitable outcome of Japan's long-term rightward political shift, warning of risks to regional peace and a potential revival of militarism.

Japan's government reaffirmed its decades-old pledge against possessing nuclear weapons on Friday following remarks by a senior official suggesting acquisition for deterrence. Opposition parties called for the official's dismissal, while the government stressed commitment to the three non-nuclear principles.

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Leading Chinese think tanks released a report on Thursday in Beijing, warning of rising nuclear weapon ambitions by Japan's right-wing forces and calling on the international community to closely monitor and counter the threat. The report highlights Japan's recent attempts to revise its three non-nuclear principles, raising concerns over the international nuclear nonproliferation regime.

In the latest development in the ongoing debate over Japan's non-nuclear stance, senior Liberal Democratic Party lawmaker Itsunori Onodera called on Sunday for renewed discussions on the country's three non-nuclear principles, signaling potential revisions under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's administration.

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Amid heightened tensions between China and Japan, the People's Daily published a lengthy commentary sharply criticizing Japan's 'neo-militarism' as a major threat to Asia and the world. The paper warns that post-war Japan has failed to fully reckon with its militarist past, while Beijing holds ample policy tools ready if Tokyo endangers China's core interests. Japan's proposed security aid budget for next year marks a record high, more than doubling the previous amount.

China's commerce ministry announced on January 7 an immediate ban on exports of dual-use goods to Japan. Japan's foreign ministry protested the move as 'extremely regrettable' and demanded its withdrawal. The measure appears to be retaliation for remarks on Taiwan by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

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Amid ongoing China-Japan tensions sparked by Sanae Takaichi's prior Taiwan remarks, Japan is bolstering ties with South Korea while facing Beijing's new export curbs on rare earths and dual-use items, prompting stockpiling and G7 coordination.

 

 

 

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